Greg McElroy Profile

Mar 12, 2011

Position: QB                                           NFL Comparison: Realistic- Kyle Orton

Height/Weight: 6’2″ 220                                                         Best Case- Tom Brady

40 Time (10 Yard): 4.91 (1.70)                Projected Round: 5-6

Stats: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=245254

(Updated 4/4/11 with breakdown of full game vs. LSU)

My Take: Yes I did just compare Greg McElroy to Tom Brady. McElroy is the most overlooked prospect in the entire draft. Many draft sites and analysts make the mistake of lazily presuming that he was simply the product of being on an insanely talented team in college, and never bother to actually check the guy out on film. In this article I’m going to walk you through the magic I see in McElroy, using a simple film session as my basis.

First things first, in case you’re unfamiliar with McElroy, you can get quickly acquainted with what he’s all about by pressing “play” on the video above this text. While watching, be mindful of his footwork, pocket presence, fluid throwing motion, and accuracy down field. Betcha’ didn’t thin McElroy had that in him, did ya?

I know what you’re probably thinking now, “That’s great and all, but anybody can look good on a highlight film”. That’s a completely valid point, and is also why we try to stay away from highlight film when scouting players. However, in McElroy’s case, game film is very scarce on the internet, so we have to make use of everything we can.

Go back to the video real quickly and watch the three plays in a row that start around 2:30 seconds into it. On the first play, McElroy immediately senses pressure off the right side of the ball and beautifully steps up in the pocket to avoid the rush. He then makes a pretty pass to a wide open Marquis Maze downfield. The next play is another example of McElroy dealing with the blitz like a seasoned veteran. There is immediate pressure up the middle, but McElroy is unfazed. He steps up into the pocket and takes a big hit, but still manages to throw a dart downfield to Julio Jones on the seam route. The third and final play again illustrates the great awareness McElroy has in the pocket. Despite only a three man rush, the offensive line quickly begins to collapse. Keeping his eyes down field the entire time, McElroy is able to sense this and step up in the pocket to avoid the rush. He then dissects the zone, and throws a beautiful ball to hit his receiver in stride.

The previous plays are all excellent examples of one of McElroy’s greatest assets- his comfort and poise in the pocket. No matter how many defenders are coming at him, he has this natural ability to maneuver with in the pocket to avoid them.  His polished footwork allows him to make slight steps to avoid the rush while simultaneously keeping his eyes down field the whole time. McElroy is always calm and collective in the pocket and never appears overwhelmed or panic-stricken against the blitz. In addition, McElroy’s footwork and mechanics are polished, and as such you almost never see him throw the ball off his back foot, especially in his Senior year tape.

McElroy also demonstrates superb accuracy throwing the ball down field, especially in the 25-40 yard range where elite NFL quarterbacks make their living. Almost any quarterback in the NFL can make accurate throws in the 5-20 yard range, but the thing that really separates the elite guys is their ability to fire strikes 25 yards and further down field.  Look at Aaron Rodgers in this past Superbowl. Instead of running the ball like the Packers of old may have, the Pack won the game through a dominant aerial attack. Rodgers arm strength, and more importantly accuracy, is what separated the two teams, especially on deep patterns like crossing patterns, deep comebacks, seam routes, and straight up go-routes.

For some reason that for the life of me I cant figure out, one of the knocks on McElroy as a pro is this notion that he doesn’t have an “NFL arm”. I have two problems with that statement, the first of which is with the term itself. For some reason, “NFL arm” has become synonymous with how far you throw the ball down field, completely disregarding accuracy. However, the perception that arm strength is king in the NFL is beside the point, especially because McElroy definitely has a more than sufficient arm. If you watch any tape on the guy its apparent that he can consistently throw the ball 50 yards down the field with nice velocity. 50 yards seems to be just about his threshold, but in reality how many plays in an NFL playbook are designed to have the ball be thrown more than 50 yards in the air?

The play below is yet another example of McElroy’s down field strength and accuracy.

He steps up in the pocket, and using his quick, over the top throwing motion hits Marquis Maze in stride 45 yards down field from where he threw the ball.  He literally could not have put the ball in a better spot.

But as I mentioned before there is so much more too being an NFL quarterback than arm strength. From a tangible stand point it definitely takes accuracy more than anything, but there are also a wealth of other qualities that to me are really invaluable.  Quarterback is the most cerebral position in any sport, and requires truly special mental abilities.

Off the field, it takes rigorous studying to begin to learn and understand how NFL defenses work, as well as to learn your own offensive system. It takes dedication and determination to watch film, and study team and player tendencies.  On the field, before you even break the huddle you need to know the entire playbook.  You need to know the routes that all your receivers will be running, and the protections that the linemen will be using. When you get to the line of scrimmage you’ve got to make pre-snap reads, call out the mike, know when to call an audible, and know the correct hot route for every play. Then you have to drop back and identify man or zone. Its not always cut and dry; and many teams will play hybrid coverages and disguise their coverages. If it’s man, you need know what match up is best to exploit. If its zone, you need to know where the hole in the particular type of zone coverage is going to be. Additionally, you need to use you need to be smart enough to use your eyes to look off safeties, and to know exactly when a receiver is going to break so you can have the ball there right when he turns around. All of these reads and decisions have to be processed and made in no longer than 4 or 5 seconds after the ball is snapped.

If you’re wondering if McElroy has the ability to do this; the quick, smart decisions he makes every time he drops back should speak for themselves. However, if you need some further evidence that he has the mental ability to make it at the next level I can happily supply it. McElroy currently has a 3.82 GPA at Alabama. He is an Academic All-American, and was also a finalist for the prestigious Rhodes scholarship. He also had the highest Wonderlic score at the Combine, so obviously he is a very intelligent guy.  This intelligence translates very well to his football IQ in allowing him to read and understand defenses, and make smart, quick decisions.  Also on the intangible side, McElroy is a leader and proven winner.  He led his high school team to 16-0 record and Texas 5a State Championship.  In his first year at a start at Alabama, McElroy and the tide rolled to a perfect 14-0 season and a BCS National Championship.  Overall, as a college starter McElroy is 24-3.  Here’s a nice video that offers some more insight into McElroy’s intangibles.

Hopefully by now I’ve dispelled any doubts you might have had about McElroy’s question marks like his arm strength.  So now I want to focus on some of the things McElroy does so well.  The thing that initially caused me to fall in love with him was simply the way he dropped back in the pocket.  I was watching him play in the 2009 National Championship, and something about the way he dropped back and looked so poised in the pocket just screamed NFL Quarterback to me.  I noticed it again this year as I watched McElroy more and more- I knew I had seen that drop-back, that footwork, and those mechanics before; I just couldn’t quite put my finger on where. It finally hit me when I was watching the Patriots take on the Jets this year in the playoffs- Tom Brady.

Below are examples of both of their drop back, throwing motion, and overall poise in the pocket.  The Brady play is play-action, so his mechanics are obviously a little different than McElroy’s in his play, which is a straight drop back. Still, the similarities are uncanny. If you scroll down you can watch both simultaneously. The Brady example comes around :52 into the video.

Brady and McElroy are alike in more than just mechanics, footwork, and throwing motion.  Both guys are extremely cerebral football players, and Brady was a 6th round pick, which is where McElroy is projected to go.  Brady definitely has 10 solid yards more of arm strength, but other than that I think their playing style, intangibles, and physical ability are comparable.

One final thing that McElroy really excels at is decision making.  He only threw 9 interceptions in the past 2 years combined.  He takes care of the football very well; and does a good job of taking what the defense gives him, instead of trying to force something that’s not there.  Being able to read defenses and make smart decisions is absolutely critical to success in the NFL, and is what guys like Brady and Manning predicate their game on.  Decision making is especially vital to converting crucial 3rd downs.  Although numbers are only available for overall conversion success, which includes both run and pass, the numbers are still noteworthy.  Alabama converted 44% of their first downs which was good for 33rd in the nation.  The Tide also had a 67% 4th down conversion percentage which was 15th in the country.  McElroy’s ability to convert on 3rd and 4th down, as well as his overall tendency to take care of the ball make him an NFL coach’s dream.

The sequence below shows a series of 3 plays in a row where McElroy makes impressive decisions, as well as throws.  The sequence starts at around 3:56.

On the first play, McElroy is charged with converting a 3rd and 9 early on in the Capital One Bowl.  Instead of forcing the ball down field; McElroy hits his favorite target, and yards after the catch specialist, Julio Jones in stride giving him plenty of room to pick up the first down after the catch. 

On play two, McElroy converts another 3rd down on the drive.  Its 3rd and 6, he drops back, looks to his right and his primary read isn’t there.  He calmly looks to his next read, Julio Jones who is in man to man coverage at the top of the screen.  Knowing Jones is going to run a curl to his outside shoulder, and stop right to the 1st down marker, McElroy throws a dart right as he turns around.  The corner didn’t stand a chance.

The final play of the sequence occurs later in the drive.  On 1st and 10 he recognizes the zone coverage, which appears to be Cover 2, and aptly splits one of the holes in Cover 2- the deep middle.   Not only did he recognize the coverage, but he also threw a perfect ball on the play.

Below is an entire game of McElroy’s from 2010 against a dominant LSU defense, that really showcases everything I love about Greg McElroy. Keep in mind this is a defense that features the likes of Patrick Peterson, Drake Nevis, and Kelvin Sheppard. My breakdown of the film accompanies it.

At 0:12 all of his initial reads are covered.  Sensing a rush from the left side, McElroy scrambles slightly his right, sets his feet, and fires a strike between three defenders to a spot where only Julio can come down with it. At the one minute mark we see a rare poor decision out of McElroy.  It’s 3rd and 8, and instead of dumping it off to his receiver that stops a few yards short of the first down, he tries to force the ball to another receiver that would have had the first down if he caught it.  These lapses in judgment are few and far between, and this one in particular was likely the result of him really feeling the pressure to keep the chains moving early in a crucial game against a rival like LSU.  2:10 is another example of him showing sufficient mobility to evade the rush, and his ability to make a nice throw in a situation where he can’t afford to set his feet.  2:45 is an NFL-level throw that a lot of guys struggle with.  McElroy puts perfect touch on the ball on this throw, and the ball lands in a spot where even Patrick Peterson can’t come away with it.  The very next play, again working against Peterson, McElroy makes a quick, accurate throw to pick up nine yards on 1st and 10.  At 4:00 McElroy just continues to look like a polished NFL-level QB.  Watch him go threw his progressions, he looks like Peyton Manning out there.  His initial read isn’t open, and the rush begins to get there. He simply scrambles to the right, avoids another rusher with the help of a block, and throws a perfect pass on the run to Darius Hanks for a 20+ yard game.  These are the types of plays that separate him from the rest of the class for me.  When things don’t go right on a play, McElroy doesn’t implode. He’s calm and collective in the pocket, and seems to always find a way to make something happen, or at the very least not let anything bad happen.

McElroy continues to wow me at 4:29. It’s 3rd and 6, and again his initial looks aren’t open.  LSU immediately gets pressure on the edge, but instead of fleeing the pocket and running up the middle like you might see Newton or Gabbert do, McElroy calmly steps up, moves to his right, and hits his receiver in stride to pick up the first down.  At 5:00 McElroy is unable to avoid the rush and gets sacked.  This concerns some scouts, but I don’t truly understand why.  The last time I checked you don’t need to have 4.5 speed to be a good quarterback.  In fact the best QB’s in the league right now are quite slow and would have went down in that situation as well.  The fact that McElroy was willing to take the sack instead of throwing it up for grabs in an effort to avoid it, is a positive in my mind.  At 5:25 McElroy again shows poise in the pocket, and throws a perfect ball between three defenders.  (5:42) McElroy makes a decent throw that should’ve been caught.  Good touch, but you’d like to see him put the ball in a little better spot.  (6:15) Nice throw and catch by the duo of McElroy and Maze.  McElroy again is not intimidated by Patrick Peterson, and throws a ball that only Maze can catch.  (6:35) Yet another 3rd down conversion out of McElroy.  Jones ran a nice route, and McElroy recognized that the blitz was coming and got the ball to him quickly.  (6:50) Textbook throw out of McElroy, kicks the back leg around, delivers an accurate pass, moves the chains.  7:30 is another example of McElroy being a target for sacks.  In this situation you’d like to see him throw the ball at the feet of his running back to avoid the loss of yards.  (7:55) Another mistake by McElroy, should’ve protected the ball better, instead of leaving it dangling at his side.  These issues are easily correctable, and not cause for concern. (8:03) Now leading 24-14 LSU again brings the blitz at McElroy.  This time he is not phased. He senses the rusher coming from the right and gets rid of the ball on time for a first down. (8:38) McElroy does a nice job of taking what the defense gives him, and puts the ball in the hands of his best play maker.  The next play he moves the Tide into the redzone by again taking what the defense gives him.  

(9:10) Best throw of the game right here out of McElroy.  His team is down by 10 points with 3 minutes left.  He’s marched them down field into the red zone, but the drive has started to stall.  It’s 3rd and 5, and they really need to convert this.  His first look is at the slot receiver to his left, who isn’t open.  He sees Julio Jones begin to separate, and throws a great ball where only Julio can catch it.  You may be thinking he could have led him a bit more, but then he would have set his receiver up for a big hit in the red zone.  McElroy knew Jones was athletic enough to make that kind of catch and put in the perfect spot. Lost in all this is the fact that that throw was against my number one player in the draft Patrick Peterson.  These are the type of the situations that separate the Kyle Orton’s of the world from the Tom Brady’s.  Orton’s great when everything is going right, but when things break down on a play, or the team falls behind, I’ve yet to see him step up.  Making clutch throws like this in high pressure situations, really makes me believe that McElroy will be a good to great NFL QB.

Pocket Presence, accuracy all over the field, awareness, footwork, mechanics, intelligence, calmness in the face of pressure work ethic, and leadership all make McElroy the complete package in my book; and really set him apart from the rest of the 2011 Quarterback Class which is largely riddled with projects.  It wouldn’t surprise me if he goes down as one of the greatest steals in Draft history.

-Ryan