Mock Draft 3.0 Round 1

Apr 25, 2011

Before I get this started, I’ll make some of my predictions which might not be clearly stated in my mock.

1. Four, maybe five, QBs will go in round one. If I had to bet on who, I’d say Newton, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, and maybe Dalton or Kaepernick. We will look back in five years and wonder why so many went so high.

2. A third QB (Locker or Kaepernick) will be off the board by pick 16. Probably to Washington, Minnesota, or Miami.

3. Running backs will fall further in this draft than ever before. Not because there’s no quality in this class, just because the reduced value of the position and the its depth in this draft.

4. Da’Quan Bowers and Adrian Clayborn will not fall out of the first round despite injury/health concerns. They are just too good of football players to fall that far.

5. We might see up to 10 defensive ends go in round one. This might be the best class at the position of all-time.

6. Nick Fairley might fall out of the top 10, but teams will look back and ask why we let him fall so far.

7. There’s no top end talent at OT, but there will be a run on them about mid-way through the first round.

8. There will be two or three trades in the top 10-15 range. There will also be a couple trades at the back end of round one for teams trading back in to get their QB. New Orleans and Seattle at 24 and 25 seem like possible trading partners.

9. We’ll see one really aggressive trade up like the Jags made to get Derrick Harvey or the Jets to get Sanchez. Philly or Houston are two teams to watch, maybe for a corner like Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara or in Houston’s case for Von Miller.

10. There will be a real head-scratcher in round one like there is every year. No one will see it coming, and we will all love it. Well, unless you’re a fan of that team.

Now what you’ve been waiting for…

Mock Draft done by Tom Sisti. Leave any comments in the comment box at the bottom of the page.

1. Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

No changes here. All the buzz has Cam going to Carolina, and I have no reason to believe otherwise. Still think he is a reach here and that Gabbert would be the smarter pick, but the Panthers seem to be targeting Newton, and they have next to nothing to gain from trying to fool the rest of the league. Panther fans, you might as well get comfortable with the idea of Cam Newton at quarterback, whether you want him or not.

2. Von Miller, DE/OLB, Texas A&M

Last minute change to the mock here. While we still believe Marcell Dareus should be the pick, Denver just sounds blown away by Von Miller. Everything coming out of Denver has them enamored with him, and it sounds like he is their guy. I suppose it could be a smokescreen to make sure no one trades up to get Dareus, but that scenario seems highly unlikely anyway. Still not exactly sure where he’ll fit and how they’ll use him, but all indications are that he is the pick. Although Dareus still fills the biggest hole, it sounds like they won’t turn down Miller and his pass rushing potential

Previous pick: Marcell Dareus

3.      Marcell Dareus, DL, Alabama

With Von Miller off the board, it opens up the door for the Bills to take Marcell Dareus. He should instantly improve their porous run defense and gives them help on the front line. There’s speculation the Bills will take Patrick Peterson, but I believe Dareus is too good of a talent at a position of too much need to turn down. A stud D-lineman typically does more for your team than a stud corner, and hopefully the Bills realize that. He’s a much safer pick than Blaine Gabbert and someone who most Bills fans would love to have.

Previous pick: Patrick Peterson

4. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

Owner Mike Brown and the Bengals have stated all along that they are not willing to give up on Carson Palmer just yet, which means this is too high to take someone like Blaine Gabbert. Green could very well end up being the best player in this draft, think Calvin Johnson, so he will make whoever they have playing QB look better. If they do put an end to the T.Ocho, there would be no better replacement than A.J. Green.

Previous pick: Blaine Gabbert

5. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

Von Miller has been pegged as the Cardinals’ guy all along, but with him off the board they shift their focus to the secondary. Patrick Peterson has been called the “cleanest” player in this draft, and it would be hard to see him not being successful. Everyone seems to think the Cards will go with Blaine Gabbert here, but we’ll listen to their beat reporters and Larry Fitz and say they explore other options (Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton, Marc Bulger) at the position. Peterson isn’t half the risk of taking one of the QBs, and he and DRC should make a shutdown tandem for many years to come.

6. Robert Quinn, DE, UNC

Julio Jones is a trendy name at this spot, and it very well could turn out that way, but I just feel like teams value a pass rusher more than a pass catcher, and the Browns are desperate for help along the line. Quinn has special talent and could become a pass rushing force which drives their defense. As much as Colt McCoy could use a receiver like Jones, the defense needs building blocks more, and with Da’Quan Bowers falling, Quinn could very well be the pick here.

Previous pick: A.J. Green

7. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

A lot of people probably think  Jim Harbaugh will wait until next year to address the QB position (*cough* Andrew Luck *cough*), but Harbaugh has to realize that’s a lot more unlikely a scenario than he’d like to believe. Instead, he takes the chance on Gabbert, hoping he can tutor him the way he did Luck. He has many Luck-like qualities: size, mobility, accuracy, smarts, toughness. Gabbert would be a far better option than Alex Smith, and if he panned out he could put the Niners atop the NFC West. Quarterback is such a more important position than cornerback, so they choose Gabbert over Amukamara here.

Previous pick: Prince Amukamara

8. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

Titans fans should be thrilled to end up with Fairley, someone who was a short while ago considered the best player in the draft. Tennessee has always been known for their defensive line, and after taking Derrick Morgan in the first round last year they get a big-time playmaker in the interior in Fairley. Fairley could have a Suh-like season as a rookie, but 6 or 7 sacks is probably a more reasonable number. The Titans just hired Auburn’s D-line coach Tracy Rocker, so Fairley is a slam dunk here. Tennessee just hasn’t been quite the same without Albert Haynesworth, and Fairley has both the game and temperament of Haynesworth. He’s not perfect but he’s someone the Titans would love to have. His stock has dropped, but we still believe Fairley will be an impact player at the next level.

9. Tyron Smith, OT, USC

The Cowboys are supposedly enamored with J.J. Watt, but there’s more value in a tackle than a 3-4 end. Smith has outstanding athleticism and could play either tackle spot. Jerry Jones usually likes skill position players, but with his athleticism, you could almost say Smith is a flashy lineman (if that’s possible). One way or another, we expect Dallas to use their pick on a lineman.

Previous pick: J.J. Watt

10. Julio Jones*, WR, Alabama

Jones would be a great replacement for Santana Moss, and he makes a lot of sense for them in this scenario. However, I full expect the Skins to trade, either up or down. My money would be on them sliding down, in an effort to target Jake Locker. They may even take him here if they’re afraid Minnesota or Miami would take him. However, look for them to move down and recoup some traded picks, getting Mike Shanahan’s #1 target in the process.

11. Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

This pick should be a no-brainer for the Texans. Their pass defense was atrocious last year. Amukamara may very well be the best player available here. Put two and two together and you’ve got yourself an immediate starter and potential All-Pro for the Texans. They may go with a pass rusher, but Prince is a surer bet at an area of bigger need.

Previous pick: Aldon Smith

12.    Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

If it wasn’t for his knee concerns, there’s no way Bowers would fall out of the top 10. However, there’s enough doubt there that some think he may fall out of the first round. That would be just ridiculous, and Minnesota would love to scoop him up. With Ray Edwards an impending free agent, they need a replacement at left end. Bowers would be the ideal complement opposite Jared Allen and would make one of the most formidable end duos in the league. Everyone in Minnesota’s draft room has to be high-fiving each other if Bowers falls to them here.

13. Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri

It sounds like the Lions won’t take an offensive lineman here, so they look to the defensive line instead. Smith could have been a top 5 pick had he been healthy all year or returned for next season. He has outstanding athleticism and would be a scary addition to Ndamukong “House of Spears” Suh. Supposedly the Lions really like Smith, and despite the fact that they already have a good pass rush, this pick makes a ton of sense here.

Previous pick: Tyron Smith

14. Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

Everyone seems to love the thought of the Rams moving up to get Julio Jones, but Liuget makes just as much, if not more sense. They wouldn’t have to give up those extra mid-round picks and get somebody who should contribute right away on the D-line. He is the perfect option to come in and play the three-technique for them and would give them somebody to build on in the interior.

Previous pick: Robert Quinn

15. Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada

Here’s the real shocker of the first round. I just couldn’t give them Mark Ingram any more. The Fins have met three times and appear to be very intrigued by his talent and production. They don’t have a second round pick, so if they want a top notch QB prospect, they need to take one here. They could try to move down to make the value better, but I really think they may surprise everyone and pick a QB with their first pick. Kaepernick would make Chad Henne’s hold on the starting position a tenuous one, and he could finally be the successor to Dan Marino.

-Previous pick: Mark Ingram

16. Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

The Jags really need help in the secondary, but help the pass rush and you help the secondary. Ryan Kerrigan had outstanding numbers at Purdue, and teams love the effort he brings on every down. We see a lot of Aaron Kampman in him, and considering the Jags obviously liked Kampman enough to add him to their roster, they’d have to like the thought of adding Kerrigan. They’ve missed on D-ends in the past, but they hope they get it right just like they did with Tyson Alualu last year.

Previous pick: Jimmy Smith

Round 1 Picks 17-32

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4