1. Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

The Chiefs stay put and nab one of the few blue chip players in this class.

*Trade* 

2.(from Jacksonville) Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan 

Detroit, who doesn’t have many glaring needs, can afford to move up and ensure they get their guy. Pass protection has been an issue for the Lions, and Fisher is considered to be as good, if not better, than Luke Joeckel. Jacksonville picks up Detroit’s second round pick (36 overall), and can likely still get one of the three players they like at five overall.

3.Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida

Floyd’s explosion, strength, and motor make him a perfect fit to be the disruptive, penetrating three-technique the Raiders defensive line desperately needs.

4.Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon

I believe Chip Kelly will want his first pick to be a player he knows can’t fail, especially when picking this high.  Geno Smith is not that guy. The Eagles are transitioning to a 3-4, and Kelly knows first hand the kind of player Jordan can be in that defense. EJ Manuel and Matt Scott are potential targets at the QB position later in the draft.

5.(from Detroit) Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU

The Jags are reportedly down to Ansah, Dion Jordan, and Geno Smith.  Trading down three spots gets them an extra second round pick, and they’re still able to get a potential stud pass rusher to supplement a league worst 20 sacks last season. Ansah is raw but has drawn comparisons to Jason Pierre-Paul because of his athleticism and versatility. Geno Smith is an option, but I don’t believe first year GM Dave Caldwell is ready to stake his reputation and job on Smith.

*Trade*

6.(from Cleveland) Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

After losing Jake Long, Miami is desperate to land a blindside protector for Ryan Tannehill.  Brandon Albert is an option, but cap room could be an issue for the Dolphins after a busy offseason.  Johnson is a younger, more affordable, more promising alternative to Albert.  Miami has an extra 2nd and 3rd round pick that they could use leapfrog Arizona, who is also in need of offensive line help.

*Trade*

7. (from Arizona) Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

Arizona looks to move down after Lane Johnson goes.  St. Louis has left over ammo from the RG3 trade, and gives up their second and fourth round pick to move up from 16 to ensure they get Tavon Austin.  Austin brings game-breaking speed, elusiveness, playmaking ability, and versatility to an offense in dire need of a shot in the arm.

8.Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

Geno’s fall ends in Buffalo. Buddy Nix and the city of Buffalo are thirsty for a franchise quarterback, and I don’t see them passing up the opportunity to take the number one rated quarterback in the class.

9.Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU

The Jets have many, many needs; the biggest of which may be a new head coach.  That doesn’t appear to be in the cards, and with no clear franchise QB on the board, the Jets address the next most impactful position: pass rusher.  Mingo explodes off the ball, and has the potential to develop into a formidable edge rushing presence.

*Trade*

10.(from Tennessee) Dee Milliner

GM Thomas Dimitroff hasn’t shied away from making blockbuster deals on draft day. Atlanta has 11 picks this year so they have the goods to move up.  They give up a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 1st next year to move up from 30 overall. Milliner is the best corner in the draft and fills a big need for the Falcons.

11.Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina

The Chargers desperately need help on the offensive line.   Cooper or Warmack would make a ton of sense here.

12.(from Miami) Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

The Browns pick up a second round picking by moving down from six, and still get the guy they wanted all along.  Eifert gives the Browns a massive target who is open even when he’s covered.   His ability to work the middle of the field, block in the run game, and split out wide as a receiver gives new head coach Rob Chudzinski a versatile, dynamic weapon.

13.Star Lotuleilei, DT, Utah

This pick may belong to the Jets if the Revis trade gets ironed out. Assuming nothing happens on this front, Greg Schiano continues to build from the trenches outward with Utah’s Star Lotuleilei. Lotuleilei is a nice value at thirteen overall and makes the Tampa Bay defensive line a nightmare for opposing teams.

14.Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

The receiving class is undeniably deep this year, but Patterson is a special talent.  He gets natural separation and his ability after the catch is second to none.  Drafting Patterson gives Cam Newton a new toy to play with, and brings versatility to the offense, as he can line up out wide, in the slot, and in the backfield.  Although he still needs some seasoning, Patterson has traits that simply can’t be taught, and the Panthers make a splash by adding the dynamic, young receiver.

15.Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

New Orleans is moving to a 3-4 defense, and Jarvis Jones is a perfect fit.  Not only is he well suited for the position of 3-4 OLB from a skill set perspective, he already has experience at the spot from playing in a 3-4 at Georgia.

16.(from St. Louis) Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama

After Lane Johnson was taken Arizona moved down to 16.  They pick up a second round pick and fourth round pick, and get a nice value in Chance Warmack, who would definitely be a welcome addition to that offensive line.

17.Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame

Pittsburgh has numerous holes they need to address.  Inside linebacker, pass rusher, corner, and receiver are all areas they need to upgrade at.  Fake girlfriends and 4.8 40 times aside, Manti Te’o is a hell of a football player.  There are multiple years of tape that scream NFL middle linebacker, and that’s ultimately what will matter on draft day. Te’o is the best player on the board at a position of need, and makes a lot of sense for the Steelers, who always love their linebackers.

18.Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

With a switch to a 4-3 imminent in Big D, Richardson makes a lot of sense here.  He’s an athletic penetrating defensive tackle that can play on all three downs.

19.D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

David Diehl is on his last legs, and the Giants could use an upgrade at multiple spots on their offensive line.  Whether or not Fluker plays tackle or guard, he is a nice fit here for the G-men.

20.Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State

Even with the signing of Jermon Bushrod, Chicago needs to ensure Jay Cutler has time to throw the football to Brandon Marshall every play.  Watson is raw and athletic, but has the potential of an elite tackle.

21.Kenny Vacarro, S, Texas

Vacarro is a very talented young safety who shores up the Bengals secondary.  He plays with loose hips, great range, and aggressiveness.

22.Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia

The Rams have had no qualms with taking high-risk-high-reward players under Jeff Fisher.  Ogletree has a ton of potential and fills a need for St. Louis.

23.Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

Rhodes is a big, physical corner with good ball skills.  He’s the type of corner that can potentially disrupt receivers like Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall at the line of scrimmage, and stick with them downfield.  He’ll be an instant starter for the Vikings, who don’t have much at the position after losing Antoine Winfield.

24.Sylvester Williams, DL, North Carolina

Poor defensive play held the Colts back last season.  After spending most of their picks on offense in 2012, Ryan Grigson switches his focus to the defense. Williams is rising up draft boards because of his his ability to play the run, potential as a pass rusher, and high motor.  He could play either the 5-technique spot or nose tackle for the Colts in their 3-4 defense.

25.Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee

Hunter has the body type of AJ Green and the speed/vertical leaping ability to go with it.  However, like teammate Cordarelle Patterson, Hunter needs some seasoning.  He struggles with drops and the subtle nuances of the position.  He seems disinterested and passive at times, but the talent is certainly there to be an elite receiver in the NFL.  Minnesota gambles that they’ve found Randy Moss part deux.

*Trade*

26.(from Green Bay) Matt Barkley, QB, USC

After moving down earlier in the draft, the Jaguars give up their high third round pick to move up seven spots and ensure they get USC’s Matt Barkley.  Barkley has a very high floor, and to me is somewhere between Andy Dalton and Matt Ryan.   GM Dave Caldwell was in Atlanta when the Falcons took Ryan in 2008, and I think he would love to add a quarterback of Barkley’s caliber to the roster at this point in the draft.

27.DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson

I was very tempted to mock a quarterback here. I think the Texans really need to bring in a quarterback of the future, but for now it seems like they are committed to trying to win with Schaub.  Hopkins is a great all around receiver that gives Schaub another playmaker on the outside to work with.

28.Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State

After losing Elvis Dumervil, the Broncos look to Tank Carradine to become a player that can not only rush off the edge, but also be a factor against the run. Carradine has a quick first step off the line and closes hard and fast on the quarterback.  Both are traits that helped the Broncos settle on Von Miller in 2011. Carradine has room to grow and the potential to become a great all around defensive end.

*Trade*

29.(from New England) E.J. Manuel, QB, Florida State

The Browns give up the second rounder they acquired from Miami earlier, a third, and a fourth round pick to move up here. New England, who is all about maximizing value, has only a 2nd, 3rd, and two 7th’s this year.  In classic Patriot fashion they will likely be looking to trade out of the first round to acquire more mid round picks.   New Cleveland GM Michael Lombardi was not a fan of Brandon Weeden last April, and likely wants to draft his own guy.  Manuel is a very similar player to Cam Newton, whom Jeff Chudzinski designed his offense around in Carolina.  Cleveland has a lot of nice pieces for a spread option offense, and I think Manuel makes a ton of sense for the Browns long term. They give up quite a bit in the trade, but the team doesn’t actually have that many holes, and is really a quarterback away from breaking out.

30.(from Atlanta) Robert Woods, WR, USC

The Titans don’t really have a glaring need so moving down from ten overall made sense.  It might have been further than they liked, but Atlanta made it worth their while. Woods is an extremely reliable target that will catch anything thrown in his area code.  He’s another target for their young quarterback.

31.D.J. Swearinger, S, South Carolina

San Francisco lost Dashon Goldson to Tampa Bay in the offseason.  Swearinger is a player that is easy to fall in love with.  He plays with a ton of passion and aggression, and can really lay the lumber.  He has the range to cover the whole field, is a reliable tackler, and was good enough in coverage that South Carolina would occasionally use him at corner.

32.Keenan Allen, WR, California

When anyone talks about Keenan Allen what comparison do they always make? Anquan Boldin. Who was the MVP for the Ravens playoff run? Anquan Boldin. Who no longer plays for the Ravens? Anquan Boldin. What does that mean? Keenan Allen.

33.(from Jacksonville) Bjoern Werner, DE/OLB, Florida State

Green Bay moves down seven spots with no clear cut guy on the board at 26, and picks up a third round pick in the process. A lot of people have the Packers taking Eddie Lacy, but  Ted Thompson doesn’t strike me as the type of GM that spends a high pick on a running back.  Werner may be the best all around defensive end in the class.  He’s strong against the run, gets off blocks well, can get after the quarterback, and has good athleticism.  He’s a nice value here at 33, and a great bookend to pair with Clay Matthews.

34.Jonathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

The loss of Isaac Sopoaga is huge for a team that believes games are won in the trenches.  Hankins has a lot of potential, and slides in nicely at the nose in their 3-4 defense.

35.Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

Trufant is a nice value at 35 and is a welcome addition to the Eagles secondary.

36.(from Detroit) Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State

The Jags got this pick when they moved down from second overall to fifth.  Taylor fills a big need at corner for them.

37.Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama

Marvin Lewis loves to run the football, and will be very intrigued if Lacy is still on the board at 37.  He fits well into their offense, and seems like the workhorse type of back Lewis likes.

38. David Bahktiari, OT, Colorado

More offensive line help for the Cards. Bruce Arians wants to implement a downfield passing attack, but it will be difficult to do with the current offensive line.  Bahktiari may have to switch to guard in the pros, but is a nice safe pick for Arizona here.

39.Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse

The Jets have to get a replacement for Mark Sanchez.  Investing a first round pick in a quarterback doesn’t make a ton of sense considering all the holes they have, but I could see them taking the best quarterback available in the second.  Nassib has reportedly drawn interest from New York, and this seems like a good fit for him.

40.Larry Warford, G, Kentucky

Even after signing Andy Levtire, Tennessee still needs help on the offensive line.  Warford makes sense here.

41.Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor

The Bills desperately need a big, physical receiver that can stretch the field.  They’re looking for a guy that’s open even when he’s covered.  Williams has the desired size/speed combo, and would be a logical selection at 41.

42.(from Cleveland via Miami) Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon State

New England got this pick when Cleveland moved up to get E.J. Manuel. Wheaton is exactly what the Patriots have been lacking on the outside.  He has the speed to naturally separate, reliable hands, and tremendous body control.  In addition to being a dangerous vertical presence, he is polished as a route runner that is good after the catch.

43.Jonathan Banks, CB, Mississippi State

Tampa badly needs a corner and Banks has a ton of potential.  Size, speed, agility, ball skills, and more.  He’s still raw, but has the potential to become the number one corner they are in dire need of.

44.Datone Jones, DE, UCLA

GM Dave Gettleman is a proponent of taking the best player available, and at this point in the draft Jones might be just that.

45.Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

San Diego continues to improve their offensive line by adding Terron Armstead.  Armstead is an athletic, small school tackle prospect with a ton of potential.

46. (from St. Louis) Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford

Arizona got this pick for trading down from 7 to 16. They need an athletic tight end that can stretch the field.  Rob Housler hasn’t panned out thus far, and even if the coaching staff likes his potential, there’s nothing wrong with having two good tight ends.

47. Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International

Cyprien is being talked about as a first round pick as of a late, so Dallas landing him in the middle of the second would be a great value. The Cowboys have a need at safety so this would make a ton of sense for them.

48. Quinton Patton, WR, Louisana Tech

Patton is one of the more polished receivers in the draft, and he’s ready to come in and make an impact right away.  The Louisana Tech product has outstanding body control and ability to adjust to the ball in the air.  Those traits plus more than good enough speed make him a formidable vertical threat.  He’s a lot more than that though.  Patton does all the little things right.  He’s a great route runner that varies his releases and speeds, and uses head fakes to get extra separation. He knows how to get open, has the toughness to go over the middle as well, and can make plays after the catch. The Steelers, who always seem to do their homework, get a real nice player at 48.

49. Alex Okafor, DE/OLB, Texas

The Giants could use another pass rusher and Okafor is a good fit here.

50. Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State

D.J. Williams is not the answer long term in Chicago.  Arthur Brown is an athletic backer that fits well here.

51. D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston

Washington could use an upgrade in their secondary.

52. Kevin Minter, LB, LSU

The Vikings are in search of a middle linebacker.  Te’o didn’t make it to them in the first, so they settle with Minter in the second.

53. Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse

Pugh may end up being a guard in the pros, but is thought of very highly for his quick feet, and low base.  Cincy has a need on the offensive line.

54. David Amerson, CB, North Carolina State

Amerson was once thought of as a top ten pick, but there is concern whether or not he can play corner at the NFL level.  He has great size, technique, and ball skills, but is a little stiff, and doesn’t have great speed.  A move to safety would make sense given his tackling ability, instincts, and ball skills.  Either way, he can help Miami’s secondary.

55. Eric Reid, S, LSU

Green Bay could use a player like Reid in their secondary.

56.Margus Hunt, DE, SMU

Pete Carroll is not afraid to take chances on players with size and athletic ability.  Despite signing two pass rushers in free agency, they take Hunt and groom him for the future.

57. Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas

Time for Houston to draft a quarterback for the future.  Matt Schaub is not the type of quarterback that can take over a game, and deep down I think the Texans know that.  If they want to be considered among the NFL’s elite, they need to improve at the quarterback position.  Wilson is a perfect fit for Gary Kubiak’s system that frequently has quarterbacks throwing from outside of the pocket on play action and bootlegs.

58. Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M

The Broncos need at add a complement to Ronnie Hillman.  Michael has the prototypical size of a workhorse back , and is a physical, north-south runner with surprising athleticism.

59. Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU

Mathieu makes a lot of sense for the Patriots, and I can only imagine the many ways Bill Belichick will use him.  San Francisco has also been linked to Mathieu, so the Pats make sure they get him here.

60. (from Falcons) Damontre Moore, DE/OLB, Texas A&M

Moore is a good value here, and the Titans could use some help at defensive end.

61. Kenny Stills, WR, Oklahoma

AJ Jenkins hasn’t quite panned out thus far, and the 49ers are still in need of a receiver that can stretch the field vertically. I talked Stills up in my Five Names to Remember post, I think he’s the type of player Jim Harbaugh could fall in love with here.

62. Matt Elam, S, Florida

Baltimore gets their replacement for Ed Reed here with Matt Elam, who is a nice value at 62.

-Ryan

Zac Stacy, RB, Vanderbilt

Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Fred Jackson.   I see all three of those players in Vandy’s Zac Stacy.  Like Martin, Stacy is built low to the ground, and has outstanding balance, strength, and leg drive.  He runs through arm tackles at line and can run over guys in the open field.  He’s not a one trick pony though.  Stacy has surprising wiggle to his game, and changes directions well.  Similar to Morris, Stacy does a nice job of finding a crease, sticking his foot in the ground, and exploding through it. He’s a down hill, north-south runner that can make you miss one-on-one in addition to running through you.  Stacy also has great vision.  Like Jackson, he is able to find running lanes that most wouldn’t see, and make something out of nothing when the blocking isn’t there. It’s baffling to me why he is still so under the radar at this point in the process.

Kenny Stills, WR, Oklahoma

One word defines Stills’ game- explosion.  While some guys lose speed as they change directions, Stills seems like he gets even faster.  It’s almost like watching that white ball bounce around on a game of pong.  He explodes out his breaks, and is very elusive one-on-one.  Stills is a very smooth, fluid athlete.  He’ll be flying around out there with 4.3 speed, stop on a dime and changes direction, and you’ll think ,”How the hell didn’t it do that without falling on his ass?”.  He just makes it look so easy.  Stills also possesses outstanding body control, which allows him to contort his body and adjust to the ball in the air.  That ability, coupled with his blazing 4.3 speed, making him a dangerous deep threat.  Stills gets natural separation as a route runner because of his speed and agility, and with some improved technique could develop into a dangerous receiver in the underneath passing game as well.  He has soft, natural hands, and plucks the ball away from his frame.  The major knock on Stills to be his size.  He may not be the biggest target in the world, but he is very tough, agressive, and embraces contact. Stills is actually pretty dependable at coming away with the ball in traffic, and shows the ability to take a hit and hold on to the ball.  Stills is a similar player to Chris Givens.  A fourth round pick out of Wake Forest in 2012, Givens shined last year as a rookie in St. Louis.

Rex Burkhead, RB, Nebraska

Burkhead has very good burst.  He accelerates to top end speed very quickly, and is an absolute load to bring down once he gets going. He’s a blue collar runner, with strong legs and a stronger motor.  He’ll fight for every single inch he can get. What surprised me most about Burkhead’s game is how much wiggle he has.  He moves laterally very well, and can make some guys miss one-on-one.  Burkhead has a great feel for the game. He’s patient in letting things develop and sees the field very well.  When he finds the hole, he explodes through it, and get’s downhill.  In the open field he can make defenders miss in open field or run them over.   He is reliable in pass protection, and occasionally lined up as a receiver.  He flashed some natural hands and receiving ability, and projects as a back that can play on all three downs.  Although not nearly as large, there are a lot of similarities between his game and Peyton Hillis’s, a 7th round pick out of Arkansas in 2008.

Tavarres King, WR, Georgia

King is only 6 feet tall, but he looks like he’s about 6’10″ with those legs.  He explodes off the line, and those long legs lead to big long strides when he starts running.  He has the speed to separate naturally, and is a fluid, polished route runner.  King is a dangerous vertical presence that can go over the top of you, or beat you on the back shoulder. He tracks the ball in the air very well, and has tremendous body control to adjust on the fly.   King has shown the ability to make tough catches in traffic, and after the catch, he is a dangerous player that can make you miss and take it to the house.  His hands are somewhat inconsistent, and his frame is slight, but I see King making a nice transition to the NFL.    His athleticism, body type, and the vertical nature of his game reminds me a lot of Denarius Moore, who was a 5th round pick out of Tennessee in 2011.

Mark Harrison, WR, Rutgers

Harrison has the ideal blend of size, strength, and speed that makes an elite receiver at the NFL level.  At 6’3″ 230 lbs. Harrison is big target that knows how to use his body to his advantage.  He positions hims self between the defender and the ball, and has the long arms to grab just about any ball thrown in his area code before a defender can make a play.  He has great leaping ability, and is agressive going up in jump ball situations.   His size and leaping ability make him a good red zone threat, but Harrison is more than that.  He has 4.40 speed and gets natural separation vertically.   He runs good routes and especially excels on comebacks where his size, speed, and technique make him almost impossible to defend.  After the catch he turns into to a running back, running down hill with force and physicality.  However,  despite all this talent, Smith’s production at Rutgers was marginal at best.  His hands are inconsistent,  and for every “WOW” catch he makes, there is an equally stunning drop.   2010 was his best season: 44 catches, 829 yards, 9 TDs.  He was voted offensive MVP by his teammates that year, but struggled to regain his form the next two seasons.  The natural talent is there for Harrison to make a name for himself in the NFL level.  He is in the mold of elite NFL receiving talent like Brandon Marshall and Julio Jones, and if he can overcome the inconsistencies that have plagued him thus far, he could turn out to be a formidable number one receiver in the pros.

-Ryan

Similarities

1.  In both 2008 and 2012, there were sixteen 1,000 yard rushers
2. In both 2008 and 2012, the average height of a top 20 rusher was 5’11″.
3. In 2008, the average yards per season for a top 20 rusher was 1,190 yards. In 2012, it was 1,180 yards.
4. In 2008, the average NFL draft position of a top 20 rusher was 70. In 2012, it was 74. Both are early to middle 3rd round picks.
5. In 2008, the average 40 yard dash time for a top 20 rusher was 4.50. In 2012, it was 4.49
6. In both 2008 and 2012, 9 of the top 20 rushers were first round picks
7. Adrian Peterson won the rushing crown in both seasons.

Differences

1. In 2008, the average weight of a top 20 rusher was 225 lbs. In 2012, it was 215 lbs.
2. In 2008, there were two top 20 rushers under 205 lbs. In 2012, there were four.
3. In 2008, there were no QB’s in the top 40 rushers. In 2012 there were three. (Griffin (20), Newton (24), Wilson (35))
4. In 2008, seven of the top 20 rushers were on playoff teams. In 2012, ten were on playoff teams.
5. Only six players from 2008 were on the 2012 list.  (Peterson, Forte, Lynch, Gore, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson)

Anyone who knows me knows that I am not the biggest fan of stats. I’ll be the first one to tell you that they don’t tell the whole story, especially in football.  I do think, however, that they are interesting and can be good jumping off points for discussion.  So what do these numbers tell us? For one, as much as the game appears to be turning into an aerial assault, the number of 1,000 yard rushers was the same in 2012 as in 2008.  Even looking back to 2005, the number of 1,000 yard rushers was still 16.  Furthermore, the average yards per season for a top 20 back has remained steady.  Clearly running back is still an important position in the NFL, and the number of top 20 rushers on playoff teams has actually increased.

10 Pounds Lighter

The average height and 40 time has also remained constant in the past four years. So what has changed?  The most glaring difference to me is the difference in weight.  While there are still plenty of 230 pound men terrorizing NFL front sevens, there now increasingly seems to be a place for the smaller, shiftier back.  With spread offenses becoming more and more common place in the NFL, smaller backs are becoming more and more viable.  These backs often excel outside the tackles, in space, and in the receiving game; but fall in the draft because they aren’t considered to be anything more than third down players.  Spreading out the defense makes between the tackles running a lot easier to do consistently for these backs because they are facing less defenders.  Against a traditional attack, a defense would have seven, maybe eight defenders in the box.  Against a spread, the defense takes a linebacker off the field so they can matchup with a receiver, and has only six (sometimes even five) defenders in the box.  Last year the Buffalo Bills manufactured a between the tackles running game (and an extremely effective one at that) with CJ Spiller by doing exactly this.  Spiller, who was once thought to be a third down/receiving back, proved for the first time to be effective between the tackles out of the spread, and became one of the most dangerous backs in the league in the process.  The read option facet that is taking the league by storm right now, further adds to this by forcing a defender that could have otherwise been free, to account for the quarterback.

For the longest time you would hear analysts gush about a back’s ability but then give them a mid to late round grade because they were too small to run between the tackles.  These backs would bring so much to the table in terms of elusiveness, home run hitting speed, receiving ability, etc., but none of that really mattered if they couldn’t hold up between the tackles.  The spread offense gives teams an opportunity to utilize backs like this, and potentially opens a door for a whole lot of new running backs to shine.  The spread is certainly not the only way to go.  Teams should (and will) always design an offense around the strengths of their personnel, but the advent of the spread has given them much more flexibility in doing this.  Smaller backs like Andre Ellington, Jonathan Franklin, Theo Riddick, and Kenjon Barner, whom I spoke highly of in my 2013 Running Back Class Preview, should have an easier time finding work in today’s game than in the NFL of five years ago.  Franklin in particular is a guy who a lot of people are sleeping on because of  his size, but he runs a lot harder and with more strength and balance to me than Cierre Wood (ten pounds heavier) does.

Final thoughts

Despite the fact that the average NFL draft position of a top 20 rusher is the middle of the third round, teams still aren’t shying away from taking a back in the first round.  While just under half of the top 20 rushers in each year were first round picks, consider this: Since 2008, 15 backs have been drafted in the first round.  Among all of those backs careers combined, there have only been fourteen 1,000 yard seasons.  Chris Johnson accounts for five of those.  Other than him, Rashard Mendenhall is the only back with more than one 1,000 yard season. The other thirteen backs have one or fewer 1,000 yard seasons.  Six of the backs have actually never had a 1,000 yard season.

With how many first round backs fail, and how many late round backs succeed, I just don’t understand why teams continue to take backs in the first round.  There is simply no value in it.  More so than any other position, you can get a quality running back at any point in the draft. Further, there is so much turnover from year to year at the position. Only 6 of the top guys from 2008 made the 2012 list.  Running backs have the shortest shelf life of any position in the NFL. In addition, save for a few of the special talents, running backs simply don’t impact the game the way other positions like quarterback and pass rusher do.  To me the first round is all about getting a game changer, especially at the top.  Is Peterson a game changer? Absolutely.  Being at the top of the rushing list four years later in incredible considering the turnover at the position- and just another testament to his greatness- but unless you’re drafting someone special, I just don’t get it.  They don’t have to be Adrian Peterson, but for me, they have to be damn close.

-Ryan

Here are the raw numbers from 2008 and 2012 if you’re interested:

What I look for most in running backs is vision.  The first thing a back has to do on every run is find the hole.  Seems easy, but a lot of backs struggle with this.  Vision is more than just finding the hole though, it’s an overall awareness of where you are in relation to your own blockers and to the other teams defenders.  It’s finding cutback lanes. It’s being patient enough to allow your blocks to develop. Being a good running back is all about processing visual information as quickly as possible, and then making split-second decisions based on it.

Next I’m looking for elusiveness- the ability to get past a defender without being tackled.  Usually, elusiveness refers to a shifty player with the ability to stop on a dime, and change directions.  That’s one way to be elusive, but you can also be elusive by running people over, or with stiff arm to the face.  Basically, elusiveness is one or more qualities that allow a back to prolong a run past the first defender. It’s a question of can you make a guy miss a tackle in the open field? There are plenty of running backs in the NFL that can get what is blocked for them, but once they get to the second level, they can’t make the safety miss.  Those backs owe their success almost entirely to their offensive lines.  There are fewer backs that have the lateral agility or sheer power to make defenders miss tackles in the open field, and turn 7 or 8 yard runs into 30 and 40 yard runs in the process.  These guys can also take runs that should have been blown up in the backfield for a loss, and turn them into 7 or 8 yard gains.  I call these yards that backs get in addition to what the line provides for them “plus” yards.  In conjunction with good vision, elusiveness gives a running back the ability to create for himself, instead of being dependent on the offensive line for productivity. Plus yards is how I believe running backs bring value to a team in today’s NFL.

Finally, I’m looking for speed. Speed is not a necessity, but it is often the difference between a very good back, and a great one.  Breakaway speed, combined with the other two traits discussed above, make for a running back that is a threat to take it to the house on every single carry.  They make for a game changer.   Special players at the running back position excel in all three of these areas.  Adrian Peterson has incredible vision, he can run through you and make you miss, and has the elite top end speed to score on every single play.

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the 2013 class…

First Round Talent

Marcus Lattimore

Height, Weight: 5’11″, 221 lbs.
College: South Carolina
So much talent here.  Size, strength, power, lateral agility, explosiveness, burst, vision, patience, toughness.  As a runner, Lattimore is really the total package.  The only area he is really lacking in is top end speed.  He has plenty of speed, but it’s not elite.  He’s got a great feel for the game, anticipates holes opening up, and finds hidden running lanes.  His lower body is incredibly strong, and he finishes all of his runs with toughness and powerful leg drive.   His ability as a receiver is adequate and he is reliable in pass-protection.  Lattimore can do it all, and do all of it well.

Then, there’s the  knee.  All reports indicate the Lattimore is working ridiculously hard in his rehab, and that he seems to be making freakish progress. When he went down last season, most thought he would never play again. Lattimore was unfazed.  He reached out to players like Willis McGahee and Adrian Peterson, who could relate to his situation, and got back to work. His mental toughness and determination in recovering from this injury further show the type of professional he will be.  Sans injury, this is the most talented back in the class, and the only back that truly has first round talent in my book.

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NFL Caliber Every Down Backs

While there may not be a lot of elite talent in this class, the mid rounds are absolutely loaded with quality running backs.

Zac Stacy

Height, Weight: 5’8″, 216 lbs
College: Vanderbilt
Tough to bring down. Good balance and leg drive.  Willing blocker and sound in pass protection.  Great vision.  Did a nice job of finding tight creases and exploding through them. Patient runner that allows things to develop and sets up blocks for himself.  Decent speed, especially for his size. Great burst through the hole. Can run through arm tackles and break tackles in the open field.  Has more wiggle than you might think, and changes directions well. Capable of making guys miss in open field.  Good in pass protection and did a nice job as a receiver on screens and swing passes.

Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Fred Jackson.   I see all three of those players in Vandy’s Zac Stacy.  Like Martin, Stacy is built low to the ground, and has outstanding balance, strength, and leg drive.  He runs through arm tackles at line and can run over guys in the open field.  He’s not a one trick pony though.  Stacy has surprising wiggle to his game, and changes directions with smoothly and quickly for a back of his size.  Similar to Morris, Stacy does a nice job of finding a crease, sticking his foot in the ground, and exploding through it. He’s a down hill, north-south runner that can make you miss one-on-one in addition to running through you.  Stacy also has great vision.  Like Jackson, he is able to find running lanes that most wouldn’t see, and make something out of nothing when the blocking isn’t there. It’s baffling to me why he is still so under the radar at this point in the process.

Montee Ball

Height, Weight: 5’10″, 214 lbs.
College: Wisconsin
Good balance and leg drive. Gets yards after contact.  Hits hole hard with good acceleration.  Shows ability to run through arm tackles at the line. Great vision. That is probably his best trait.  Has a good sense of knowing where/when running lanes are going to open.  He finds yards others wouldn’t, and displays the patience to let things develop.  Good burst, and can change directions quickly. Accelerates to top end speed quickly, but lacks breakaway speed.  Ball is a very solid back in just about every facet.  He demonstrated the ability to be effective running behind a variety of blocking schemes, as well out of the shotgun.   Pass protection is the one area where Ball could improve the most.  He is a willing blocker, and does a good job of recognizing who he is supposed to block, but the execution of the block needs some work.  Mediocre speed and the fact that he already has a lot of “tread on his tires” could hurt Ball on draft day, but he should have a really nice NFL career.

Eddie Lacy

Height, Weight: 5’11″, 231 lbs.
College: Alabama
Thick frame that is built for between the tackles running. Good vision for the most part.  Does a nice job of cutting runs back and picking up hidden yards. Better speed than you might expect.  Decent wiggle.  Can run you over or make you miss. Utilizes the spin move with surprising success for such a big back.  Demonstrates the ability to bounce off tacklers in the open field.  Strong leg drive to push the pile and churn out tough yards. Tough to bring down once he gets going.  Pass protection is inconsistent.

Lacy has all the makings of a dependable, workhorse back, but I have my concerns.  If there is one thing his game is lacking it’s burst.   He lacks the short area quickness to make defenders miss in the backfield, and takes a while to build up to his full speed.  If the blocking isn’t there at the point of attack, Lacy could really struggle.  Lacy did not run at the combine, and cut his pro day workout short because of apparent conditioning issues.  There are also some whispers circulating that his toe could be a long term concern.  Lacy is somewhat reminiscent to me of Benjarvus Green-Ellis.  While Green-Ellis has proven to be a dependable back that can shoulder a heavy workload, teams thought enough of his talent to let him go undrafted. I’m not saying that Lacy shouldn’t be drafted- I’d give him a 3rd-4th round grade- but with where he will likely go, I just don’t see any value in taking him.

Knile Davis

Height, Weight: 5’10″, 227 lbs.
College: Arkansas
Davis is a player that it seems like many in the scouting community are down on, and understandably so. Despite the downward trend on him, I do believe there is (or at least was) first round caliber talent in Knile Davis.  He has rare straight line speed for a man of his size, and is a threat to take it the distance on every play.   I like his vision especially on cutbacks, and he displays patience let things develop.  Runs with power and force and has strong leg drive to finish runs. Quick feet. Lots of wiggle and explosion for his size. Can make you miss in open field or run through you. North-south runner, that gets plus yards with agility as well as power. He seemed to excel on zone running plays where he can find the hole, make one cut and get upfield with power and speed.

Working against Davis is the fact that he runs very upright and has issues holding on to the football.  Most NFL personnel guys will tell you that guys who run upright get injured too often. Dating back to high school, Davis has had three broken ankles and two broken collar bones. He also struggles some what with balance, and leaves some yards on the field by getting tripped up.  This is something that could theoretically fixed with lowering his pad level.  If you watch Knile Davis play in 2010 he looks like a young Darren McFadden, and a definite first round talent. Injuries have curtailed the hype in recent years, but I wouldn’t write Davis off just yet.  After watching Davis in 2012 against Texas A&M, and seeing his 4.37 40 yard dash/31 reps at the combine, I’m convinced that he still has the freakish athleticism in him.  To me, Davis had first round talent, and there is evidence that it is still there, but I wouldn’t look for him to be drafted until day two because of some pretty serious injury issues.
Rex Burkhead

Height, Weight: 5’10″, 214 lbs.
College:  Nebraska
Excellent burst.  Accelerates to top end speed quickly, and is a load to bring down once he gets going. Better lateral agility than you’d expect.  Can make defenders miss in open field or run them over.  Good vision.  Sees the field well, and finds cutback lanes. Follows his blocks and is patient in letting them develop.  Runs with good forward bend and pad level.  Strong legs, and always fights for extra yards.  A lot faster than his 4.73 40 yard dash would indicate.  Still, he lacks elite speed. Reliable pass protector.  Ran some routes as a receiver and showed natural hands. Burkhead reminds me of a miniature Peyton Hillis.  Like Hillis, he can run you over or make you miss, and has good ability as a receiver.  Burkhead’s size, toughness, and versatile skill set make him a back that could play on all three downs in the pros.

Christine Michael

Height, Weight: 5’10″, 220 lbs.
College: Texas A&M
Powerful burst. Dangerously explosive for his size.  Accelerates to top end speed quickly and is a home run threat. Runs with good forward lean and a low center of gravity.  That plus strong leg drive making him very tough to tackle.  Physical runner that falls forward for extra yards. Although very explosive in a straight line, lacks lateral agility to change directions quickly, and make defenders miss one-on-one  Good in short yardage.   North-south runner best suited for a power system.  Michael was a top performer in 5 out of the 7 combine events for running backs, and has a ton of raw athletic ability for such a big man.  He’s limited as a receiver out of the backfield, and his pass protection needs work.  He’s a willing blocker, but doesn’t anchor defenders. Right now Michael is a little raw, but he has the potential to develop into an every down NFL running back.   There are some durability questions with Michael.  Broken leg, torn ACL while at A&M.  He also had a somewhat disappointing year in 2012 after losing playing time for a “bad attitude”.  Michael compares well to Eagles’ running back Bryce Brown in terms of size, athleticism, and natural ability; as well as with a questionable dedication to the game.
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Smaller, Shifty, and Dangerous

More mid round talent here. These guys are the type of back that are at their best with 15-20 touches (runs or catches) per game.  You probably wouldn’t want to rely on them for much more than that. I’m not sure that they could be the guy for a team the way that Peterson or MJD are.  They’ll likely be a part of a tandem, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be incredibly productive.

Jonathan Franklin

Height, Weight: 5’10′, 205 lbs.
College: UCLA
Franklin can make you miss or run through you.  Has both power and explosion in his legs.  Shows strength to run through arm tackles at line. Lateral agility makes him elusive one-on-one. Good vision and patience.  Explosive burst through the hole.  Accelerates to top end speed quickly.  Above average top end speed, but not elite.  Runs incredibly hard.  Good leg drive and balance.  Can catch the ball out of the backfield.  Questions about ability in pass protection, and ability to shoulder a 20 carry work load in the NFL.

Franklin is a very impressive running back.  He runs with a lot of toughness, and brings a lot of versatility to the table.  Is he an every down back or a third down back? I think the answer is somewhere in between.  In a pinch, I believe he could handle 20-25 carries and be productive, but he might want pack on some more muscle if he wants to get as many touches as he did at UCLA.  For me, the comparison to Ahmad Bradshaw is obvious.  At the very worst Bradshaw will be a valuable part of a tandem, but I do think the potential is there for him to shoulder a full workload like Bradshaw did last year for the Giants.  Franklin is also somewhat similar to another Giant running back, Tiki Barber.  It will be interesting to see how the NFL views Franklin on draft day, but what ever his role ends up being in the pros, I have no doubts thats he will shine.

Andre Ellington

Height, Weight: 5’9″, 195 lbs.
College: Clemson
Dangerous runner with good vision and patience.  Sees the field well, does a nice job of finding cutback lanes and creating for himelf.  Very explosive player that can change directions quickly and make guys miss in the open field.  Good burst. Explodes through the hole, and is a threat to score on every play.  Above average, but not elite speed.  Can definitely get to the edge and turn the corner. Not afraid of contact and has balance and leg drive to bounce off tackles.  Can run through arm tackles at the line. Good leg drive to finish runs. Capable of grinding out tough yards. Strong in pass protection, and is a good receiver out of the backfield. Ellington reminds me of CJ Spiller and Jamaal Charles in terms of size, explosiveness, and elusiveness; but he lacks the elite speed that makes those two backs so special.

Cierre Wood

Height, Weight: 5’11″, 213 lbs.
College: Notre Dame
Great make-you-miss ability in open field.  Explosive out of his cuts.  Patient runner with good vision.   Sees running lanes before they develop and has the burst to explode through them when they open up.  Has great feet and can stop on a dime and change directions.  Vision and agility allow him to weave his way through defenses.  Good size, strong enough to run through arm tackles.  Plays a lot faster than his 40 time would indicate.  Definitely has home run hitting speed. Willing pass protector, though technique could use improvement. Inexperienced as a receiver out of backfield. Despite being 213 pounds, he plays like a smaller back, and I don’t know that he could handle the workload of an every down back.

Theo Riddick

Height, Weight: 5’10″, 201 lbs.
College: Notre Dame
Full disclosure: Theo Riddick is my favorite player in the draft.  The first time I saw him play he was a sophomore and playing slot receiver for the Irish.
http://youtu.be/1hQ43jhVZIU
He had a few drops, but also made some gritty catches over the middle of the field. What caught my attention however, was how talented he was when he got the ball in his hands.  He basically turned into a running back, and he looked like a natural.  He just had this innate ability to prolong plays after he should have been tackled.  He seemed like he could be a special player if he was better utilized.  Brian Kelly must have saw this too, and converted Riddick to running back for his senior season.
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Runs incredibly hard.  Fights for every yard. Has strong legs and good leg drive to churn out tough yards.  Runs with good forward lean and pad level that give him exceptional balance and the ability to bounce off tackles.  Former receiver with natural hands and smooth route running ability. Only average speed at best. Isn’t going to run away from any defensive backs.  Despite so-so speed has great feet. Very explosive out of his cuts and changes directions with ease.  Lateral agility makes him very elusive one-on-one. Sees the field with superior vision.  Sees holes before they develop.  Processes the game so quickly and finds lanes that most backs wouldn’t.  Sets up defenders with failure in open field. with elite vision and lateral agility.  Sometimes it seems like he knows what the defender is going to do before he even knows.

Riddick is certainly not the most gifted in terms of size or athleticism.  But he possesses elite intangibles like toughness, grit, and elite vision that allow him to consistently churn out plus yards that other backs don’t get.   His 4.68 forty will scare many teams away but this kid can flat out play football. Hand him the ball, throw him the ball, it doesn’t matter- he will produce.  The versatility and toughness he brings to a team are invaluable, and I think he will go down as an absolute steal when he does finally get drafted.
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Smaller, Shifty, and Dangerous Part II

These players are similar in style to those listed above, but are a tier below them in my opinion.  There are still plenty of quality backs in this tier, and these guys are further evidence of how deep rounds 2-4 will be with running back talent.

Kenjon Barner

Height, Weight: 5’9″, 196 lbs.
College: Oregon
Sees the field exceptionally well.  Is very patient in letting the play develop, and has great vision to find creases and cutback lanes at the line of scrimmage and in the open field.  Sets up blocks for himself, and weaves through defenses in a seemingly effortless fashion. His vision gets him yards that other backs wouldn’t see.  Has great feet, change directions quickly and easily. Hits the hole with good burst and explosion.  Accelerates to top end speed quickly, but lacks elite speed. Natural hands out of the backfield.  Lacks size of an every down back, but could be highly productive in a spread system that utilizes his vision, shiftiness, and ability as a receiver.

Giovanni Bernard

Height, Weight: 5’8″, 202 lbs.
College: North Carolina
Bernard was not as fast as I thought he would be. Has short choppy steps, which allow him to accelerate to top end speed quickly.  However, short strides leave a lot to be desired in terms of top end speed, where he is barely above average. Has some good wiggle to him, and fights for extra yards.  Quick feet. Capable of stopping on a dime and changing direcition. Shows balance to bounce off tackles and extend plays.  Good vision.  Decent hands.  Lacking in pass protection.  Needs to learn how to stand a rusher up.  Good return man.  Reminds me somewhat of David Wilson, who I was also not very high on. The Ray Rice comparisons are crazy to me.  I see a third down/change of pace back.  There’s certainly a place for him in a tandem somewhere, but I think he is really over-rated as of now.

Chris Thompson

Height, Weight: 5’7″, 192 lbs.
College: Florida State
Limited tape available. He has some serious wheels.  Explosive athlete that changes directions well.  Tough to bring down in the open field.  Home run hitting ability. Good vision and explosive burst through the hole. Runs with decent power for his size, and fights for extra yards.  Demonstrates ability to run through arm tackles, but likely too small to run between the tackles consistently at NFL level. Good in the screen game.  Durability issues.  Could be a dangerous change of pace/receiving back in the NFL.  Also brings value in return game.

Overcame a broken verterbrate in his back in 2011 to get healthy for 2012 season.  Started 2012 off hot.  Averaged over 7 yards per carry, and had over 600 rushing yards heading into October 20^th game vs Miami.  A torn ACL in that game cut Thompson’s promising senior season short.  Coach Jimbo Fisher praised Thompson’s resilience, work ethic, and character.  Thompson is flying under the radar, and  will likely be a late round pick.  Although there are durability issues, the tape that is available shows a dynamic, explosive back that can make an impact at the NFL level.

Joseph Randle

Height, Weight: 6’0″, 204 lbs.
College: Oklahoma State
Good burst and open field speed. Home run hitting ability. Decent leg drive. Runs with the authority of a bigger back and has the ability to break tackles  Good vision.  Can change directions adequately but not explosive out of his cuts, or overly elusive in open field. Good receiver out of the backfield. Shows willingness to pass protect and has good technique. Like to see him be more patient and set up blocks for himself in the open field.  Wish he had more wiggle to him. Held up well on a high workload last two seasons.  Over 300 touches in 2012, over 250 in 2011

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Overrated

These backs are ones that I was really excited to watch considering the hype surrounding them.  I came away unimpressed, and feel that they are no better than a replacement level NFL running back.  They don’t get plus yards, and I dont feel like they bring much value to a team except for the ability to withstand a heavy workload.

Mike Gillislee

Height, Weight: 5’11″, 208 lbs.
College:  Florida
Runs hard. Decent top end speed and good burst.  Good in short yardage. Good leg drive. Good in pass protection.Out runs his blockers instead of letting things develop.   Bounces plays outside when he shouldn’t.  Lacks patience.    Lateral agility is there, but struggles to make defenders miss one-on-one.  Too much dancing at the line and in the open field. Not especially elusive, and tries to make defenders miss too much instead of picking up yards that are there.  I don’t think he has a very good feel for the game.  He leaves a lot of yards on the field. He reminds me of Knowshon Moreno in that respect. Overall he is solid, but not a game changer, and not someone that scares a defense.  Day three talent in my opinion.
Stepfan Taylor

Height, Weight: 5’9″, 214 lbs.
College: Stanford
Finishes his runs, will fight for every yard he can get.   Good leg drive. Good vision overall.  Follows his blocks and gets what is there. Lacks top end speed.  Not overly elusive.  Tries to dance too much in open in field instead of lowering shoulder. Willing pass blocker, but technique needs improvement.  Lacks explosiveness and make you miss ability to create for himself and rip off long runs.  Overall Taylor is not a gamechanger, but a guy that can get what’s blocked for him, and withstand a heavy carry total.

Le’Veon Bell

Height, Weight: 6’1″, 230 lbs.
College: Michigan State
Good leg drive and strength to grind out tough yards.   Over 400 touches last season with the Spartans. Runs very upright and lacks balance as a runner.  Is tripped a lot easier than a guy of his size should be.  Tries to dance a little too much.  Would like to see him run with more authority.  Too often he’s trying to juke a defender instead of lowering his shoulder.  He doesn’t have the lateral agility to make defenders miss.  Takes a while to build up to his top speed.  Lack of burst and short area quickness make him dependent on offensive line for success. Top speed is decent, but he’s not running away from any defensive backs.  Has the size, strength, and toughness you look for in a work horse back, but doesn’t get many plus yards.  I think he’s very similar to Brandon Jacobs.  He’s durable, reliable, good in short yardage, but he’s not going to win you any games, and is easily replaceable.
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Potential Third Down Backs

Ray Graham

Height, Weight: 5’9″, 199 lbs.
College: Pittsburgh
Tried to dance a little too much I thought. Lacks the strength and balance to consistently run through arm tackles. Hits the hole with an explosive burst.  Great top end speed. Lateral agility to make guys miss in the open field.  Good vision, locates cutback lanes well. Could be more patient.  Sometimes seems like he is shot out of a cannon running full speed ahead.  Good receiver out of the backfield. Runs good routes, reliable hands and is dangerous with the ball in space. Isn’t going to break many tackles. Small frame is cause for concern and doesn’t show the strength to be able to consistently run through the tackles.  Best fit is as a 3^rd down back.

Curtis McNeal

Height, Weight: 5’7″, 190 lbs. (according to school website)
College: USC
Aggressive in pass protection, but somewhat lacking in awareness of assignments and technique.    Lacks strength to run through arm tackles.   Good vision and patience, sets up blocks for himself.  Above average speed and accelerates to top end speed quickly.   Sudden player that can change directions quickly.  Runs tough and fights for every yard.  Chippy player that won’t shy away from contact.

Onterio McCalebb

Height, Weight: 5’10″, 168 lbs.
College: Auburn
Elite speed in a straight line. Long strides and accelerates to top end speed quickly.  Good hands and is dangerous when you get him the ball in space. Liability in pass protection.  Decent lateral agility, but doesn’t really make anyone miss.  Lacks the size and strength to run between the tackles consistently. Runs too upright. Great as a returner.  Is a similar player to Kansas City’s Dexter McCluster.  Could have some value as a receiving back, but best bet in the NFL is to stick somewhere as a return man.

Kerwynn Williams

Height, Weight: 5’8″, 195 lbs.
College: Utah State
Nice hands. Good straight line speed and burst.  Lacks wiggle. Not very elusive one-on-one. Lacks strength, leg drive, and balance to break tackles.  Decent vision.  Will get what’s blocked for him but not much else.  Potential 3^rd down back at the next level.
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The Rest

These guys are basically your replacement level NFL running back in my opinion.  Some of them do some things well, but when it comes down to it- they’ll get what is blocked, and not much else.

Montel Harris
Height, Weight: 5’8”, 208 lbs
College: Boston College, Temple
Good lower body strength and balance allow him to get yards after contact.  Shows strength to run through arm tackles at line.   Usually falls forward for extra yard.   Runs tough and is not afraid of contact. Good vision.  Lacks lateral agility.  Not a sudden athlete, and doesn’t make defenders miss one-on-one. Is lacking in terms of top end speed, and takes a while to build up to that speed.  Natural hands.  Harris is a solid player that will get what is blocked for him, but not much else.

Dennis Johnson
Height, Weight: 5’9″, 213 lbs.
College: Arkansas
Short choppy steps.  Has significant build up time and only has average speed at best.  No wiggle.  Lacks fluidity when changing directions. Low center of gravity and leg drive make him tough to bring down.  Good hands.  Reliable. Lance Ball-esque

George Winn
Height, Weight: 5’11″, 218 lbs.
College: Cincinnati
Runs hard and with good burst.  Fights for every yard.  Runs with good pad level and leg drive.  Below average speed, and lacks ability to change directions .  Not elusive, just a pure north-south runner that will get what is blocked for him.

Robbie Rouse
Height, Weight: 5’6”, 190 lbs.
College: Fresno State
Good in pass protection.  Good balance, forward lean, and leg drive allow him to drive pile and churn out extra yards.  Not a sudden athlete.  Lacks wiggle to make defenders miss one-on-one.  Speed is really lacking, struggles to turn the corner.  Best as a downhill, between the tackles runner.  Has good hands and was used heavily as a receiver out of the backfield.  Is a reliable back that can be trusted on 3^rd downs, but doesn’t excel in any particular area.  Best suited for a power run scheme.

Miguel Maysonet
Height, Weight: 5’9”, 209 lbs.
Tough, downhill runner that embraces contact.  Cuts are slow and pronounced.  Average speed at best. Somewhat of a plodder.  Lacks fluidity as an athlete. Grinds out tough yards.  Good vision. Capable of shouldering full workload, but a plodding runner that doesn’t bring a whole lot to the table.

Stefphon Jefferson
Height, Weight: 5’11″, 210 lbs.
College: Nevada
Like his vision and patience as a runner.  Runs too upright, lacks balance.  Isn’t going to make anyone miss in the open field.  Has the strength to run through tackles, but needs to run with a lower center of gravity and more authority.  Shows good leg drive at times, and usually falls forward for extra yard or two.  Some ball security issues. Good hands.  Lacks explosiveness.  Slow coming out of cuts.  North-south, one cut runner that could be a serviceable every down back with some improved technique, but is never going to be anything special.

Jawan Jamison
Height, Weight: 5’8”, 200 lbs.
College: Rutgers
Lacks strength and leg drive to run through arm tackles.  Accelerates to top end speed quickly, but lacks break away speed.  Lacks suddenness and explosion. Slow out of cuts. Doesn’t make many guys miss.  Will get what is blocked for him, but that’s about it. Workhorse for Rutgers. 500 touches over the course of his 2 seasons, indicates durability and toughness. Needs work in pass protection.  Willing, but ineffective blocker.

Spencer Ware
Height, Weight: 5’10”, 228 lbs
College: LSU
Good hands. Down hill runner that won’t shy away from contact.  Good lower body stength and leg drive to drive pile and get tough yards. Below average speed.  Lacks wiggle.  Plodding runner that doesn’t change directions well.  Not going to make anyone miss in open field.  Good in short yardage. Strong in pass protection.  Might be better off converting to full back where receiving and blocking ability can be best utilized.

Michael Ford

Height, Weight: 5’10″, 210 lbs.

College: LSU

Has the speed to get to turn the corner but isn’t going to run away from anyone.    Takes a while to build up to top end speed, which is average at best.  Not a sudden athlete. Little wiggle to him.  Somewhat of a plodder.  Runs hard, and will fight for extra yards.  Not going to make anyone miss, and doesn’t break many tackles.

Position: RB/WR

College: Notre Dame

Height, Weight: 5’10″, 201 lbs

Class: Senior

Stats

Combine

Theo Riddick is my favorite player in this draft.  The first time I saw him play he was a sophomore, and playing slot receiver for the Irish.

He had a few bad drops in this game, but also made some really gritty catches over the middle of the field. What caught my attention however, was how talented he was when he got the ball in his hands.  He basically turned into a running back after the catch, and he looked like a natural.  He just had this innate ability to prolong plays long after he should have been tackled.  He seemed like he could be a special player if he was better utilized.  Brian Kelly must have saw this too, and converted Riddick to running back for his senior season.

Pros:

• Runs incredibly hard.
• Fights for every yard.
• Has strong legs and good leg drive to churn out tough yards.
• Runs with good forward lean and pad level that give him exceptional balance and the ability to bounce off tackles.
• Former receiver with natural hands and smooth route running ability.
• Despite so-so speed, has great feet.
• Very explosive out of his cuts and changes directions with ease.
• Lateral agility makes him very elusive one-on-one.
• Sees the field with superior vision.  Sees holes before they develop.
• Processes the game so quickly and finds lanes that most backs wouldn’t.
• Sets up defenders with failure in open field with elite vision and lateral agility. Sometimes it seems like he knows what the defender is going to do before he even knows.
• Willing blocker

Cons:

• Slight frame raises questions about ability in pass protection and the workload he could handle.
• Only average speed at best. Isn’t going to run away from any defensive backs.
• Needs to protect the football better.

Riddick is certainly not the most gifted in terms of size or athleticism.  He is very explosive laterally however, and possesses elite intangibles like toughness, grit, and tremendous vision that allow him to consistently churn out plus yards that other backs wouldn’t get.   His 4.68 forty may scare teams away, but this kid can flat out play football. Hand him the ball, throw him the ball, it doesn’t matter- he will produce.  I give Riddick a second round grade, but I think many teams will see him more in the 5th to 6th round range.  The versatility and toughness he brings to a team are invaluable, and I think he will go down as an absolute steal when he does finally get drafted.

-Ryan

More:

Position: QB

College: West Virginia

Height, Weight: 6’3″, 220 lbs.

Class: Senior

Stats

1/11/13: 

After studying Geno Smith I’ll say this- I have no idea why he is projected to be the number one overall pick.  That’s not to say Smith is a bad player, or that he can’t be successful at the NFL level. I just think if you’re going to take a quarterback first overall, he has to at least have the potential to turn into an elite, franchise quarterback.  I thought the argument for taking Geno Smith was just that.  That Smith had the greatest upside of any of the quarterbacks, and in a supposed down year for quarterbacks, you might as well go for broke.  However, I don’t really see the potential with Geno Smith. Obviously there is room for improvement in Smith’s game (I’ll elaborate on that more later), but there are multiple quarterbacks in this class that have stronger arms than Smith, and Smith’s athleticism is average at best.  I think a lot of people have an incorrect impression of Geno Smith as being this great athlete, in reality he’s much more similar athletically to Jay Cutler than Cam Newton. While Geno Smith certainly has a lot of potential for improvement, I don’t think that he is the best quarterback in this class right now, and I also don’t think he is a player with all that much upside.

Positives: Prototypical size for the position at 6’3″, 220 lbs.  Room for improvement with arm strength, velocity, and accuracy. Moves well within the pocket to evade rushers.  Is patient in the pocket, and doesn’t panic when his primary read isn’t open.  He stays calm and goes through his progressions quickly.  Average mobility.  Able to get outside the pocket off play action and make some throws on the run.  Understands the game fairly well. Knows where to go with the football.  Does a good job of looking off defenders to open up throwing lanes.  No issue with throwing the ball away if no one is open.

Negatives:  Passing stats are inflated from short passes and his receivers running wild after the catch. Most of his throws were less than 10 yards down field.  Throws downfield are touchy at best in terms of accuracy.  In a three game stretch I watched of him, he attempted 15 deep balls.  He completed one of them. Most of the misses weren’t even close.  Doesn’t really have a great arm.   Can throw it approximately 50 yards in the air, but doesn’t have the zip on the ball that other quarterbacks do.  A lot of his outbreaking throws get jumped because the ball seems to hang up in the air.  Footwork needs a lot improvement.  He sets too wide of a base, and at times his hips are squared up to the line of scrimmage at times when he throws.  He needs to learn to drive through his throws and have his feet set in the direction of his target.  Improvements in this department could help generate more zip on his throws, and help with his accuracy issues.  Some issues sensing pressure.  Does a good job of avoiding it when he sees, but doesn’t always see it.  Leaves the ball exposed when standing in the pocket and I saw him get strip sacked numerous times.

Film Study:

Here are a couple of examples of how Smith’s footwork affect his accuracy and velocity.  The first example comes on a 3rd and 4 early in the Mountaineers’ game against Maryland.  Smith’s first read on this play is the swing pass to his left.  Swing passes are a staple of the West Virginia offense. If the swing pass is covered, Smith’s second read is the slot receiver who is running a seam-read-route.  He basically finds the open spot in the deep middle of the field and runs to it.

Maryland is running a zone blitz.  They rush 5 defenders, and the 6 guys behind the rushers, play zone coverage.  The zone coverage they employ is basically a cover 2 look.  The 2 safeties are each responsible for one half of the deep portion of the field.  The two cornerbacks are responsible for the flats, and the two line backers are responsible for anything in the short to intermediate range.

Smith first looks to the swing pass. The corner back and the linebacker swarm, and take this away.  The safety on the far side of the field (not shown) takes the receiver that is streaking down the far side of the field. A huge hole opens in the middle of the field. The slot receiver is going to be wide open.

Smith goes through his progressions, and sees the slot receiver running wide open.  He sets his feet to fire the ball, but notice how far apart his feet are.  It’s tough to drive through a throw with that wide of a base, and when you stand that flat footed.  

The throw misses badly, and the Mountaineers have to punt.

A couple series later we have another good example of Smith’s poor footwork.  His primary read on this play is the slot receiver on a speed out.   

The slot receiver is open.  Smith cocks his arm to throw, but his feet are all out of whack.   He’s flat footed, his hips are open, and he’s squared up to the line of scrimmage.  

It’s hard to see in the picture, but the ball sails out of bounds.  

Any good quarterback will tell you how important your feet are.   Your feet determine where the ball goes, and how fast it gets there.   Your velocity as a thrower comes from your core and your hips, more than it does your actual arm. In Smith’s case, I think with some refined footwork he can improve both in terms of accuracy and velocity. With some polished footwork and mechanics, I think Geno Smith can be a really solid NFL quarterback.  I just don’t ever see him being elite.  I don’t understand taking a quarterback that has the potential to be “really solid” first overall.  I think Smith is deserving of a second round grade based on film study, but with the way quarterbacks have been drafted in recent years, it would not be shocking if he is the first pick of the draft.

-Ryan

Notes:

Deficiences in sensing pressure, pocket awareness. Needs to protect the football.  Do like how he maneuvers within the pocket. Seemed a little too indecisive.  Most of his completions came off play action or were quick screens.

Again didn’t sense pressure.  Had ball batted out of his hands.  Like how he stands in pocket and goes through progressions.  Late on some of throws though.  Comebacks and out breaking throws broken up.  Either late on the read, or lack of arm talent to get the ball there before defender can make a play. Spotty accuracy downfield. He’s NOT even fast!  Built to come from behind?

Have yet to see him complete a pass more than 30 yards down field.  Attemps plenty of deep throws. Probably close to 15 in these 3 games.  Made a few throws where he looked off the defender.  One such throw for a TD splitting the safeties.  (10:08) Finally hit a deep throw.  Beautiful strike to Austin in stride. Good movement in the pocket.  Doesn’t panic when primary read isn’t there. Willing to throw the ball away.

Poor footwork causing some ugly throws.  Needs to step and drive through his throws. Sometimes has his feet spread too far apart or squared up to the line of scrimmage.  He loses a lot of velocity and accuracy like that. Noticed he has happy feet in the pocket.  Basically he bounces up and down as he’s surveying the field.  Not a huge issue, this is something Peyton Manning still does today. Again a lot of his yards came after the catch. Most of his completions were only 10 yards downfield.

Position: QB

College: Virginia Tech

Height, Weight: 6’6″, 262 lbs.

Class: Junior (RS)

Stats

7/23/12:

Physical Talent: Great height to survey the field from the pocket. Rocket arm. Can make all the throws. Generates incredible spin and velocity on his throws when he drives through them. Over the top release and his height translates to very few passes batted at the line. Good athlete with above average speed for the position. Expolsive and powerful burst through hole on read option plays. Runs through arm tackles. Capable of side stepping defenders and lowering his shoulder to move the chains.  More of a downhill runner than an elusive one.  Is tough to bring down once he gets going because he is so big.  Dual threat nature makes him a weapon in Red zone and short yardage situations. Throws the ball well on the run.

Technical Ability: Inconsistent mechanics. Throws with his arm not his body. Doesn’t consistently step into throws and drive through them.  Results in under throws with less velocity and a lesser spiral. Somewhat flat footed.  Footwork is somewhat raw. Will stand with his feet closer than shoulder distance apart in pocket. Has happy feet, will bounce up and down in the pocket. On throws to sidelines will step his front foot towards the sideline and square his body to the line of scrimmage when he throws.  As a result he throws with his arm only, and the ball doesn’t come out with as much velocity and accuracy.  Needs to step towards the receiver not the sideline. These mechanical issues seemed to improve as the season went on.

Between the Ears: Stands tall in the pocket and surveys the field with confidence.  Cool and calm in the pocket.  Despite being a good runner of the football, is definitely a pass first QB. Goes through progressions and makes good decisions. Is very good on 3^rd down because he is calm in the pocket and sees the field so well.  If defense sits back he will make them pay by picking up first down with his legs.  Knows his offense well and will change plays at the line.  Always keeps his eyes down field when scrambling. Leaves pocket prematurely some times.  Needs to work on maneuvering within the pocket to avoid rushers. Has a habit of staring down his primary read.  Telegraphs some of his throws as a result.

1/11/13: Thomas really struggled in 2013, and it was probably a good decision to return for his senior season. More to come later in the offseason.

Notes:

vs. Miami (2011)

-3^rd and 6.  Stood in the pocket through a nice ball on a seam route to hole in zone.  Completed the pass in soft spot between 3 defenders.

-Nice touch on a wheel route to FB.  Blitz was coming and he through to a spot that let the FB run under it.

-Lowered his shoulder when he ran with the ball.  Needs to learn to slide.

-Nice throw on the run on a comeback to the outside.

-Fumbled a snap out of shotgun set.  Resulted in turnover.

-Scrambled right, kept eyes downfield, threw across his body to receiver on opposite side of the field

-2^nd and goal. Went through progressions, ended up finding his RB David Wilson open in flat.  Checked down to him, and Wilson scored. Smart decision.

-Rusher came free. He saw him and tried to just take a sack, but got the ball stripped. Got to protect the football

-Skipped a pass short on a 8 yard hook.  Threw off balance, didn’t step into his throw. All arm, no body.

-Nice deep ball off play action.  Threw the ball about 45 yards in air, hit receiver basically in stride for a TD.  Didn’t totally step into the throw because he was about to get hit.  Ball still got there, but he could’ve led him a yard or two more.

-Scored GW TD on a veer.  Kept the ball instead of giving it to RB and took off right up the middle of the defense.

vs. North Carolina (2011)

-(3:15) Stepped into this underneath throw.  Good ball placement.

-3^rd and 3 stepped into this throw as well on a quick slant to Danny Coale.  Good ball placement where only Coale could get it, moved the chains.

(4:10) 3^rd and 4. Rolled right, kept eyes downfield, made a great throw on the run

and hit receiver right between the numbers for first down.

-Overthrew a lot of receivers in this game, but was stepping into throws more consistently

-(8:20) Didn’t step into this deep ball.  Missed a receiver who had a couple steps on the DB.

-3^rd and 2. Great run for a TD.  Read option. Kept the ball ran right up the middle.  Exploded through the hole, ran through arm tackles.  He’s really tough to bring down.

-(10:40) Nice touch on deep ball to Boykin.

-(10:58) Changed play at line of scrimmage recognizing the man to man coverage with no safety help.  Called a play with a pick concept that got receiver wide open for TD.

vs. Virginia (2011)

-(1:43) 2^nd and 10.  Cluttered pocket, but stepped into throw and drove through the throw.  Uncorked a beautiful deepball that traveled ~53 yards in the air, landed right in his receiver’s bread basket.  Has the potential to make accurate, high velocity throws all over the field with improved mechanics.

-3^rd and 8 from UVA 16.  Stood tall in pocket.  Stepped into throw. Made nice throw to receiver over the middle of the field with good ball placement for a TD.

-Completed a pass off of PA on a comeback, but stared his receiver down the whole time when waiting for him to break.

-Left pocket somewhat prematurely.  Evaded an edge rusher by stepping up and scrambling outside the pocket.  Could’ve just stepped up in pocket.

-(3:42) Stepped into this throw and it was an absolute missile. Razor tight spiral, a ton of velocity on the throw

-(3:48) Squared his feet to the line of scrimmage again on this throw.  Needs to step into these throws, although he did complete the pass.

(4:32) Anticipated and stepped into this underneath throw.  Got ball there before defenders could close.

(5:08) Nice throw on the run with a ton of velocity.  Again showing the type of throws he is capable of making.

vs. Michigan

-(1:30) Saw pressure coming.  Made hot read and got ball out quick for a decent gain.

-(2:00) 3^rd and 20.  Stepped into throw.  Drove threw it.  Completed pass in traffic to Coale for first down.  Good ball placement.

- (2:35) 3^rd and 13.  Scrambled out left and made a nice throw over a dropping defensive lineman and in front of a corner to hole in zone.

-3^rd and 8. Stood tall in pocket.  Surveyed the field, found Coale open in the middle of field and made a nice throw into a high traffic area to move the chains.

-Doesn’t really matter for NFL, but noticed he makes bad reads on read option plays.  Keeps the ball way too often when he should hand it off. May just be that he wants to make plays.

-Picked up a first down with his legs on 3^rd and 12.  Side stepped defenders and lowered his shoulder to move the chains.

-(6:21) 3^rd and 10.  Stared down his receiver the whole way.  Receiver was running an out, and Thomas threw a great ball with a ton of zip on it.  However, the pass was broken up because he telegraphed the throw.

-Next play was 4^th down.  Dropped back in pocket, didn’t see anyone open. Moved up, scrambled to the outside, kept his eyes downfield the whole time. Decided best bet was to tuck and run and he picked up the 1^st down.  Liked how his eyes stayed downfield whole time.

-(7:54) Stepped into this underneath throw.

-(8:21) Anticipated this stick throw.  Threw the ball right as Coale went into his break.

Mike Glennon

6’6”, 232 lbs.

vs. Louisville (2011)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEn_9QvOCfI

-Good height to survey field from pocket.

-Good arm.  Steps into and drives through his throws.

-Good velocity and spin on his underneath passes.

-Inconsistent accuracy and ball placement in intermediate to deep passing game.

-Demonstrated ability to go through progressions quickly and find open receiver.

-Rolled right and made a nice throw on the run.

-Threw a wobbly pass that missed an open TJ Graham on a deep throw.

-Under-threw a deep ball off play action.  Ball was wobbly and got intercepted.

-Showed nice accuracy and ball placement in short to intermediate passing game.

-Threw two nice seam routes. Threw one to the outside shoulder so the receiver could make a play after the catch.

-Blitz came off right side.  Made hot read and got rid of ball quickly on a throw to TJ Graham.

-Noticed a lot of drops by receivers.  Could be because he doesn’t throw the tightest spiral?

-Average athleticism at best for the position

-Ball placement was off on intermediate to deep throws.  Threw behind his receivers, put it on the wrong shoulder, overthrows, underthrows.

-Made smart decisions for the most part.  Threw the ball away instead of taking sacks.

-A lot of shallow crossing routes

-Telegraphed a few throws.  Two balls got jumped and should’ve been picked.

-Questionable throws to receivers that are tightly covered.

-Ryan

Position: QB

College: USC

Height, Weight: 6’1″, 218 lbs

Class: Senior

Stats

7/22/12:

The more I watch Matt Barkley, the more impressed I become with his game. He doesn’t wow you with raw physical ability or arm strength. Barkley just consistently makes quick, smart, decisions, impressive throws, and takes care of the football. Consistency is perhaps his greatest attribute. You know what you’re going to get with him week in and week out. He protects the football with smart decisions and textbook ball placement.  He will consistently put the ball in spots where only receiver can catch the ball.

Strengths: Good off play action.  Can roll out of the pocket, always keeps his eyes downfield.  Good thrower on the run (still very accurate) Can make throws across his body.  Good pocket presence.  Senses pressure well, and will step up in the pocket to avoid it.  Will side step defenders, and has good quick feet in the pocket to avoid rushers.  Does all this while keeping eyes downfield.   Sees the field well.  Makes smart split-second decisions, and rarely puts the ball in harm’s way. Shows good anticipation, gets the ball out before receivers go into their breaks.   When receiver gets out of their break, the ball is their with good ball placement.  Nice touch on most of his passes, will allow receivers to run to the ball and hit them in stride. Throws a nice fade route. Good footwork on 3 and 5 step drops, which helps get him in rhythm and make accurate throws.  Very accurate on short quick passes such as bubble/flanker screens to WR, swing passes to RB, flat routes to FB.  Great leadership qualities.

Weaknesses: Good not great arm. Accuracy drops off somewhat past 40-45 yards.  On these deep routes he doesn’t have the same touch on his throws. He will overthrow and under throw open receivers on deep routes longer  in the 45+ yard range.  He’s basically a finished product.

Overall: Barkley is a very polished, well-rounded QB.  I don’t know if there is one thing that he does particularly well though.  There is a very definite ceiling with him, and I think what you see now is what you’re going to get. To me he is reminiscent of Matt Ryan in that respect. While he is regarded as the number 1 prospect for the 2013 draft right now, I would be surprised if he ended up being the number one pick come April.  Barkley is the safest quarterback prospect in this class.  He’s going to be a really good NFL starter- just like Matt Ryan- but I don’t see him ever playing at the level of an elite QB like an Aaron Rodgers. I think his mediocre arm will ultimately hurt his chances of going number one overall.  Tyler Wilson and Logan Thomas both have crazy arm talent and a ton of upside for teams to fall -in love with. Their potential is far greater than Barkley, and ultimately I think at least one of them will be taken ahead of him.

—

1/12/13:  The hate has gone too far with Barkley. Making fun of Matt Barkley has become the cool thing to do as of late. His draft stock plummeted pretty significantly over the course of the 2012 season. Once projected to go number one overall, he will now likely go somewhere in the mid first to early second range.  This is where I thought he belonged all along. I think he’s the surest bet of any of the quarterbacks to be a starter in the NFL for the next ten years, I just don’t think he has the potential to reach the elite tier of NFL quarterbacks, and that’s why I wouldn’t draft him number one.

Barkley is a limited player to me because of his inability to consistently throw the ball accurately more than 40 yards down field.  However, in the short to intermediate passing game, he is exceptional.  He has a superior understanding of defenses and knows where to go with the ball.  He anticipates throws, gets the ball out quickly and accurately, and allows his receivers to catch the ball in stride.  He rarely puts the ball in harm’s way and is very strong and poised in the pocket.  If you tailor the offense to his strengths, I think Barkley can thrive in the NFL.  He’ll have to play in a west coast offense, similar to Andy Dalton in Cincinnati, but if you surround him with playmakers, you could have a really potent offense. I like to compare Barkley to something between Andy Dalton and Matt Ryan.  Worst case scenario, he’s Andy Dalton- an average to slightly above average NFL quarterback. Barkley also possesses some rare intangible leadership qualities.  He’s the type of person that can instantly become the face of franchise and take charge of the locker room. I think the interview process will be huge for Barkley.  He radiates leadership and confidence, and is someone that a front office could easily fall in love with for those reasons. The upside is certainly limited, but there is soooo much to like with Matt Barkley. There’s also very little risk, and that’s why I currently have Barkley as the number two quarterback on my board behind Tyler Wilson.

Notes:

vs. California (2011)

-Lots of short passes and screens, with deep shots mixed in

-Very accurate throwing screen and swing passes.

-Doesn’t always drive through his throws, uses just his arm to throw not his feet and core

- Can get outside the pocket. Average speed, capable of rolling out.

-2 nice fade passes to true Freshman Marqise Lee.  Good touch, layed it in right over receiver’s shoulder in stride.

-Showed good anticipation on a curl route.  Woods ran it to the sticks, when he turned around the ball was right on him with good low ball placement so the defender couldn’t break up the pass. Stepped into this throw

-Made nice throw across his body to other side of field, ball placement was good, but didn’t set his feet and threw off backfoot.

-On 3^rd and 2 in 4^th Quarter threw a beautiful pass when scrambling out to his right.  Threw on the run, under pressure, delivered a strike on a 10 yard comeback to the sideline with good anticipation.

vs. UCLA (2011)

-Lots of constraint plays in the Lane Kiffin offense.  A ton of bubble, flanker, and quick screens to receivers in this game.

-Missed on a few deep routes.  Over threw the receiver both times.  His good touch seems to fall of somewhat after 40+ yards.

Lane Kiffin went for it up 22-0 on 4^th and goal from the 4 in the 2^nd quarter.  Weird formation with everyone spread out on the sideline and only 2 o-linemen.  Barkley made a great play, scrambled right, saw a receiver about to run open, and started to run for the TD to draw the safety towards him.  This opened things up for the WR and he dumped it over top to his guy for a TD.  He does a very good job of keeping his eyes downfield while scrambling

-Threw a nice fade from the 4 yard line to Robert Woods for TD. Again showed off his really good touch on this throw as Woods was tightly covered but he put the ball in the perfect spot.

-Nice throw on a post, don’t see him throw this kind of deep throw over the middle of the field much.

-Lane Kiffin is kind of an asshole, they threw the ball like crazy this game and it was over in the 1^st quarter.  With 14 min left the score was 50-0 then he finally called off the dogs.

vs. Oregon (2011)

-Showed he could roll left and still throw a nice ball

-Fumbled a snap early in the game, and Oregon recovered.  Crowd at Oregon may have affected this.  Oregon was ranked number 4 for this game, USC unranked, this was a huge game for Barkley.

-Early in the game off PA threw pass to receiver who had beat his man pretty good on a streak.  Underthrew the receiver and he had to slow down and come back to the ball.  The corner was able to receover and the WR had to make a contested catch. Throw was about 50 yards in the air, again showing some limitations in his game in on real deep throws

-3^rd and 4 in the redzone.  Threw a 15 yard fade to Woods for TD.  Great ball placement and touch yet again. USC up 14-0 early

-Nice throw to Marquisse Lee. Good anticipation again, put ball back shoulder where only he could get it, Lee came back to the ball and made a play.

-3^rd and goal in redzone, classic USC PA rollout throw to R. Woods who lined up in backfield and ran a flat route like a FB.  TD 21-7 USC

- Next possession dropped a snap from shotgun set in the redzone. Picked it up and panicked, Overthrew receiver and hit a LB  right in hands but he dropped it.

-Picked up first down with legs off PA on 2^nd and 5

-2^nd and 4 on Oregon’s 5 yardline. Woods motioned into backfield, defender didn’t follow him, Barkley recognized it was zone, rolled out to his right and hit TE in hole in zone coverage for TD.  Had to throw back across his body on the run.

-More I watch of him more I like him. Very smart and consistent.

-Nice throw on PA rollout to right.  Comeback route good anticipation and ball placement when throwing on run.

-First INT I’ve seen him throw.  Defender interfered with Woods, ball got tipped and caught by safety.

-Score now 38-35. 1^st down. Nice seam route to TE.  Saw defender had back turned to play and threw right over the defenders shoulder to a spot where his TE was able to make a play and move the chains.

-Beat Oregon 38-35 on the road in big game.

vs. Arizona State (2011)

-Missed open Woods early in game on streak.  About a 50 yard throw and overthrew him.  That great touch again not present on these deep throws over 40-45+yards

-Missed WR on a post over the middle of the field

-Nice stick throw to Woods with good anticipation

-Threw INT to Burfict on flanker screen.  Burfict jumped it

-Threw nice deep pass to wise open woods about 35 yards downfield. Hit him in stride

-Great throw to Lee on Corner for a TD

-Missed another wide open receiver deep down field on over throw.

-Nice throw on 3^rd and 5 to Woods who found hole in zone.  Got the ball out quick and on the money with his throw

-Held ball too long on 3^rd and 5.  Got ball stripped and ASU recovered.

-ASU scores makes it 2 posession game. Next series for USC, first play. Play action, Barkley is under pressure on roll out to right.  Threw the ball while he was getting dragged down to FB in flat. Bad throw, got pick sixed.  Should’ve just taken the sack, and lived to fight another play.  Instead ASU clinched the game on that play.

-Ryan

Position: QB

College: Tennessee

Height/Weight: 6’6″, 213 lbs

Class: Junior

Stats

7/22/12:

Bray has a very strong arm and gets good zip on his ball.  His mechanics and footwork are sound, and he has some decent athleticism.  Anticipates throws. Very accurate underneath.   In the games I’ve seen he was very streaky.  When he was in rhythm he was great, but there were large portions of the game where the Vols offense was non-existent. I question whether or not he is a winner. Can he take over a game? He was a true sophomore last year, so there is plenty of room for improvement. With the prospect of being a first round pick in April looming, I would expect Bray to make big strides in his third collegiate season.

Notes:

vs. Alabama (2010)

-True Freshman

-Made some plays

-Flashed that cannon arm

- Picked up a first down with legs

-Stood in the pocket and took some hits, but never got discouraged.

vs. Cincinnati (2011)

-3^rd and 9 threw 12 yard comeback with great anticipation before receiver even went into his break. Pass was on target and moved the chains.

-Nice touch on deep ball to Justin Hunter

-Good zip on the ball and ball placement on underneath routes

-Makes impressive throws into tight coverage when needed, otherwise the offense calls for a lot of dink and dunking down field.

-Great throw over the middle of the field on a post for a TD. Threw right in the hole in the zone coverage and let receiver run to the ball.

vs. Georgia (2011)

-Good pocket presence and mobility within the pocket. Unaffected by pressure, keeps eyes downfield

-Made some impressive throws, also a lot of dink and dunk stuff

-Question of whether he is a winner, and if he can take over a game.

-Ryan

Position: QB

College: Georgia

Height/Weight: 6’1″, 209 lbs

Class: Junior (RS)

Stats

7/22/12:

Quick release. Compact throwing motion, generates good velocity on his throws.  Surprisingly strong arm for his size. Can throw the ball 50+ yards accurately. Capable of making “stick” throws into tight coverage with good velocity. Throws a nice deep ball with great touch and ball placement. On deep balls consistently allows the receiver to run to the football and catch the ball in stride, with out having to slow up. Sees the field well for only being 6’1”.  Makes good, smart decisions. Is patient and won’t force things when surveying the field. Goes through progressions quickly and makes good reads.  Rarely puts the ball in harm’s way. Understands defenses and takes advantage of it by throwing to spots that are holes in coverage. Cool and calm in the pocket. Never see him panic if his first read is covered or in face of the blitz. You can tell he has a great handle on his offense and where he needs to go with the football.  Anticipates throws and gets the ball out before receiver breaks on throws that require it. Good ball placement on most of his throws putting the ball on the correct shoulder, and where a defender can’t make a play on it. Mobile and an above average athlete for the position. Can make plays with his legs. Has good vision in open field and is capable of making a defender miss. Takes advantage of his speed if the defense doesn’t account for him, but is definitely a pass first quarterback. Tough kid that won’t give up on plays. Can take a hit and bounce right back up.

1/6/13:

Murray had a fantastic junior season and I’m disappointed in his decision to return to school.  Murray would likely have benefitted from coming out in a year with a quarterback class that is so widely criticized for being sub-par.  I think Murray has the potential to be an elite NFL quarterback.  I would gladly take him first overall (as I would Tyler Wilson), and am really stunned that most draft analysts barely have Murray in their top 10 QUARTERBACKS.  Murray has all the intangibles- the pocket awareness, the anticipating of throws, the understanding of defenses.  He’s accurate and has a strong arm.  I dont think people realize how strong his arm is.  He puts a ton of zip on the ball, can make all the throws, and throws a beautiful deep ball.  He gets the ball out quick and I’ve seen him make tons of NFL throws into tight coverage.  I’ve seen perfect ball placement on back shoulder throws 30 yards downfield.  Murray also has good mobility and throws well on the run.  He’s trusts his arm- sometimes a little bit too much- but I like that.  The only real knock I can see on Murray is his size.  If you watch him play, the size doesn’t effect him AT ALL.  If they re-drafted the 2012 draft, Russell Wilson is a top 3 pick right?  Have we learned nothing from Russell Wilson this year? Height doesn’t matter!

Notes:

vs. Auburn (2011)

-Redshirt sophomore in this game

-Nice back shoulder throw. 30 yards downfield, perfect ball placement

-Fit ball into tight window on 3^rd and 7 for TD

-Threw nice post pattern before receiver cut.  Good anticipation, in tight window too over middle of field.

-Picked up a first with his legs on 3^rd and 11

-30 yard back shoulder perfect ball placement to a different receiver than the one earlier in the game.

-Didn’t sense pressure off his non-blind side. Ball got stripped, UGA recovered though.

-Against pressure on next drive, stepped up tried to flush play outside and got ball stripped

-Next play wisely just took a sack instead of risking a turnover when defense closed on him

vs. South Carolina (2011)

-Got pressured on first few plays of game, affected his accuracy on subsequent plays.

-Faced heavy pass rush early. Made a nice play with his legs, stepped up in pocket and took off for 20 yards. Made defender miss in open field.

-Good zip on ball on stick throw

-Saw blitz, went to hot read, threw perfect slant to move the chains.

-On HB screen was pressured immediately and couldn’t get ball out.  Got stripped and returned for a TD.

-Threw perfect deep ball on outside shoulder about 40 yards for TD

vs. Michigan State (2011)

-Nice throw on 3^rd and 4 under pressure

-Perfect deep ball to Tavarres King. Allowed him to run underneath it and catch it in stride.  Ball traveled 45 yards in the air.

-Took off on 3^rd and long got the ball stripped.  MSU recovered

-1^st and 10 UGA takes a shot downfield.  Pocket moves to right on designed rollout. Throws a bomb to Tavarres King and again perfect ball placement. Hits him in stride allows him to run underneath and King never had to slow up to catch the ball.  Ball traveled approximately 55 yards in the air.

-Threw two ugly INTs.  First one was due to miscommunication with receiver.  Murray rolled right and assumed the receiver would break to the right sideline with him.  The receiver was in the wrong here. Second INT threw a pass to the flat and the corner jumped it.  Bad read.

-Nice throw on a hook pattern with anticipation.  Ball was out right as receiver went into break.  Receiver turns around and ball is there, corner had no chance.

-Stutter and go to Tavarres King for 30 yards.  Bucket throw right on the money where only King could get it.

-Had a pass that should have been picked in OT.  Threw right at a LB and dropped it.  I don’t think he saw the LB, but he should have.

-Ryan